# Will Robert Suarez win NL Reliever of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 15 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnlreloty
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:38.351Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $312

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | 68¢ | ±0 | $265 | kalshi | /markets/will-mason-miller-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-maso-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-mmil |
| Riley O’Brien | 5¢ | +1pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/will-riley-obrien-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-rile-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-robr |
| Robert Suarez | 8¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-suarez-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-rob-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-rsua |
| Pete Fairbanks | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-fairbanks-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-pe-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-pfai |
| Raisel Iglesias | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-raisel-iglesias-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-r-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-rigl |
| Emilio Pagán | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-emilio-pagn-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-emili-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-epag |
| Tanner Scott | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tanner-scott-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-tann-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-tsco |
| Ryan Walker | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ryan-walker-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-ryan-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-rwal |
| Devin Williams | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-devin-williams-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-de-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-dwil |
| Dennis Santana | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dennis-santana-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-de-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-dsan |
| Trevor Megill | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trevor-megill-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-tre-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-tmeg |
| Clayton Beeter | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clayton-beeter-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-cl-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-cbee |
| Kevin Ginkel | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kevin-ginkel-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-kevi-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-kgin |
| Gregory Soto | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gregory-soto-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-greg-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-gsot |
| Jeremiah Estrada | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeremiah-estrada-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-jest |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 17 |
| 2026-04-25 | 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | 39 |
| 2026-05-09 | 8 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · Robert Suarez +7pp 1→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Robert Suarez −4pp 5→1¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 10% probability indicates that prediction market participants see Robert Suarez as a relatively unlikely winner of the 2026 National League Reliever of the Year award. The current market pricing reflects Suarez's 2026 performance relative to other NL relievers, with factors like ERA, saves, innings pitched, and overall team success typically influencing voting outcomes. The probability could shift significantly based on how Suarez performs through the remainder of the 2026 season, injury developments, or if he accumulates standout statistics that separate him from competitors. The resolution will occur after the regular season concludes, when voting is conducted and the award winner is announced in early November 2026. Until then, his actual performance metrics and comparative standing among other elite NL relievers will drive any market movement.

### Key factors

- Suarez's season-to-date ERA, saves total, and innings pitched relative to other NL relievers as of early May 2026
- Injury status and availability for the remainder of the 2026 season, which would affect accumulation of statistics and voting consideration
- Performance trajectory through June-September, including consistency and success in high-leverage situations
- Competition from other established relief pitchers in the NL with similar or better statistical profiles
- Voter preferences weighted toward different statistical categories (saves versus ERA versus overall appearances) when the award is decided in November 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnlreloty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbnlreloty

## License

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