# Will Moises Ballesteros win NL ROTY

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 5 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnlroty
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.017Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sal Stewart | 25¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-sal-stewart-win-nl-roty-sal-stewart-kalshi-kxmlbnlroty-26-sste |
| Konnor Griffin | 18¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-konnor-griffin-win-nl-roty-konnor-griffin-kalshi-kxmlbnlroty-26-kgri |
| JJ Wetherholt | 24¢ | +1pp | $832 | kalshi | /markets/will-jj-wetherholt-win-nl-roty-jj-wetherholt-kalshi-kxmlbnlroty-26-jwet |
| Nolan McLean | 19¢ | −2pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-nolan-mclean-win-nl-roty-nolan-mclean-kalshi-kxmlbnlroty-26-nmcl |
| Moises Ballesteros | 9¢ | −1pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-moises-ballesteros-win-nl-roty-moises-ballest-kalshi-kxmlbnlroty-26-mbal |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 19 |
| 2026-04-25 | 19 |
| 2026-05-02 | 14 |
| 2026-05-08 | 24 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Sal Stewart −9pp 38→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Konnor Griffin +7pp 11→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · JJ Wetherholt +7pp 15→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Sal Stewart −5pp 29→24¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 15% probability reflects betting market expectations that Philadelphia Phillies prospect Moises Ballesteros will win the National League Rookie of the Year award. At mid-season 2026, this relatively modest odds level suggests bettors view Ballesteros as a secondary contender rather than a frontrunner. The main drivers of this probability are his actual playing time and performance statistics through the season—batting average, on-base percentage, power numbers, and games played accumulate through June and July, directly determining his eligibility and competitiveness against other rookie candidates. The probability will move significantly in early September as voters begin considering final statistics, with the formal award announcement typically occurring in November. Early performance trends and playing time allocation over the next two months represent the primary catalysts that could shift expectations either upward or downward before year-end resolution.

### Key factors

- Ballesteros's plate appearances and games played through August, which determine eligibility and statistical volume compared to other NL rookies
- His offensive production metrics (batting average, home runs, RBIs, on-base percentage) relative to other first-year position players in the National League
- Philadelphia's decision regarding his playing time and roster role—whether he receives consistent at-bats or limited opportunities
- Performance and statistics of competing rookie candidates in the NL during the same period
- Any injuries or roster moves affecting either Ballesteros or primary competitors for the award

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnlroty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbnlroty

## License

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