# Will José Soriano be the American League Pitcher of the Month for April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 8 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbpitcherotm
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.806Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-05

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $599

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | 9¢ | — | $477 | kalshi | /markets/will-max-fried-be-the-american-league-pitcher-of-t-kalshi-kxmlbpitcherotm-26mayal-mfried54 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 3¢ | — | $119 | kalshi | /markets/will-nathan-eovaldi-be-the-american-league-pitcher-kalshi-kxmlbpitcherotm-26mayal-neovaldi17 |
| José Soriano | 6¢ | — | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-jos-soriano-be-the-american-league-pitcher-of-kalshi-kxmlbpitcherotm-26mayal-jsoriano59 |
| Trevor Rogers | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trevor-rogers-be-the-american-league-pitcher-kalshi-kxmlbpitcherotm-26mayal-trogers28 |
| Paul Skenes | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-skenes-be-the-national-league-pitcher-of-kalshi-kxmlbpitcherotm-26maynl-pskenes30 |
| Robbie Ray | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robbie-ray-be-the-national-league-pitcher-of-kalshi-kxmlbpitcherotm-26maynl-rray38 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-be-the-national-league-pitcher-kalshi-kxmlbpitcherotm-26maynl-sohtani17 |
| Mason Miller | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mason-miller-be-the-national-league-pitcher-o-kalshi-kxmlbpitcherotm-26maynl-mmiller22 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 11 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates an 11% chance that José Soriano will be named the American League Pitcher of the Month for April 2026. The probability reflects his performance relative to other AL pitchers during that specific month, with the award typically going to the pitcher with the most wins, lowest ERA, or strongest overall statistics among qualified starters. The current low probability suggests either that Soriano underperformed in April or that other pitchers posted more dominant numbers. The resolution will occur when MLB officially announces the award winner, typically in early May. Factors affecting the probability include Soriano's win-loss record, ERA, and innings pitched throughout April compared to competitors, as well as whether he remained healthy and received regular starts. Any significant injuries to top AL competitors could shift probability upward, while sustained excellence from other pitchers would likely keep it low.

### Key factors

- Soriano's April 2026 ERA and win-loss record relative to other AL starters
- Whether Soriano received regular starting assignments and innings pitched in April
- Performance of competing AL pitchers during the same month, particularly those on contending teams
- Historical voting patterns of baseball media selecting Pitcher of the Month awards
- Any injuries to other AL pitchers that could reduce competition for the award

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbpitcherotm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbpitcherotm

## License

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