# Will Aaron Judge be the American League Player of the Month for April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 10 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbplayerotm
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.999Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-05

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $934

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger | 18¢ | — | $555 | kalshi | /markets/will-cody-bellinger-be-the-american-league-player-kalshi-kxmlbplayerotm-26mayal-cbellinger35 |
| Andy Pages | 4¢ | — | $250 | kalshi | /markets/will-andy-pages-be-the-national-league-player-of-t-kalshi-kxmlbplayerotm-26maynl-apages44 |
| Aaron Judge | 17¢ | −2pp | $67 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-judge-be-the-american-league-player-of-kalshi-kxmlbplayerotm-26mayal-ajudge99 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 16¢ | — | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-be-the-national-league-player-o-kalshi-kxmlbplayerotm-26maynl-sohtani17 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 3¢ | — | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-bobby-witt-jr-be-the-american-league-player-o-kalshi-kxmlbplayerotm-26mayal-bwitt7 |
| Shea Langeliers | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shea-langeliers-be-the-american-league-player-kalshi-kxmlbplayerotm-26mayal-slangeliers23 |
| Zach Neto | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zach-neto-be-the-american-league-player-of-th-kalshi-kxmlbplayerotm-26mayal-zneto9 |
| Nick Kurtz | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nick-kurtz-be-the-american-league-player-of-t-kalshi-kxmlbplayerotm-26mayal-nkurtz16 |
| Sal Stewart | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sal-stewart-be-the-national-league-player-of-kalshi-kxmlbplayerotm-26maynl-sstewart27 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-schwarber-be-the-national-league-player-kalshi-kxmlbplayerotm-26maynl-kschwarber12 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 11 |
| 2026-05-07 | 10 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 17% probability reflects the market's assessment that Aaron Judge will be named the American League's Player of the Month for April 2026. The relatively low probability suggests the market views other AL players as more likely to claim the honor based on their April performance. Judge's chance of winning depends primarily on his offensive statistics through April—batting average, home runs, RBIs, and on-base percentage relative to competing AL players. The actual resolution occurs when MLB announces the official April Player of the Month award, typically in early May. Factors that could shift this probability include Judge's actual April performance data, injuries to other top AL contenders, and whether the New York Yankees remain competitive. Since April has already concluded as of today's date, the award announcement should be imminent, making this a near-term resolution event. The 17% probability suggests the market currently favors other players but acknowledges Judge as a realistic candidate depending on final statistics.

### Key factors

- Judge's April 2026 offensive statistics (home runs, RBIs, batting average, OPS) compared to other AL players who performed in the same period
- Whether injuries to Judge or other top AL offensive performers occurred during April that affected their eligibility or competitiveness
- The specific voting criteria and historical patterns MLB uses to select monthly award winners, including how team performance factors into individual player recognition
- Market prices on competing AL players' Player of the Month probabilities, which would indicate the distribution of expected winners
- The timing and official announcement date from MLB of the April 2026 Player of the Month award

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbplayerotm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbplayerotm

## License

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