# Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

> New York Y leads at 95%, runner-up 91% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbplayoffs
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.555Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-01

## Headline

- Leader: New York Y at 95%
- Runner-up: Milwaukee at 91%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Y | 95¢ | +2pp | $578 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-new-york-y-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-nyy |
| Milwaukee | 91¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-milwaukee-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-mil |
| Atlanta | 90¢ | ±0 | $177 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-atlanta-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-atl |
| Philadelphia | 79¢ | +7pp | $157 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-philadelphia-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-phi |
| Cleveland | 49¢ | +10pp | $112 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-cleveland-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-cle |
| Chicago WS | 46¢ | −2pp | $651 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-chicago-ws-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-cws |
| San Diego | 39¢ | +9pp | $118 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-san-diego-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-sd |
| Texas | 31¢ | −1pp | $90 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-texas-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-tex |
| Houston | 25¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-houston-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-hou |
| Pittsburgh | 24¢ | −4pp | $39 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-pittsburgh-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-pit |
| A's | 23¢ | +1pp | $753 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-as-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-ath |
| Miami | 21¢ | +4pp | $121 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-miami-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-mia |
| Detroit | 20¢ | −1pp | $435 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-detroit-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-det |
| St. Louis | 20¢ | −3pp | $382 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-st-louis-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-stl |
| Baltimore | 16¢ | −7pp | $177 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-baltimore-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-bal |
| Washington | 9¢ | −1pp | $490 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-washington-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-wsh |
| New York M | 9¢ | −2pp | $167 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-new-york-m-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-nym |
| Boston | 6¢ | +1pp | $55 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-boston-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-bos |
| San Francisco | 3¢ | ±0 | $31 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-san-francisco-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-sf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | New York Y | Milwaukee | Atlanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 94 | 77 | 92 |
| 2026-06-11 | 90 | 90 | 95 |
| 2026-06-12 | 89 | — | 94 |
| 2026-06-19 | 92 | 92 | 84 |
| 2026-06-23 | 92 | 92 | 88 |
| 2026-06-24 | — | 94 | 91 |
| 2026-06-25 | — | — | 91 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Cleveland −20pp 64→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · New York Y +11pp 81→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · St. Louis −11pp 41→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · San Diego −11pp 30→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Cleveland +10pp 44→54¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the aggregate expected likelihood that one of the five listed MLB teams will qualify for the 2026 playoffs. At 94%, it indicates high certainty that at least one of these franchises will secure a postseason spot, though the specific winner remains uncertain across the contracts. The current season record, remaining games, and divisional standings drive this assessment. Teams with higher contract prices (Atlanta at 91¢, Cleveland at 39¢) are viewed as more likely playoff qualifiers, while lower-priced teams reflect increased competitive barriers. The primary catalyst determining outcomes will be regular-season performance through the end of October 2026, when the playoff field is finalized. Weather, injuries, and mid-season trades could materially shift individual team probabilities, though the aggregate 94% reflects confidence that the market's expectations of playoff qualification remain stable across this cohort.

### Key factors

- Win-loss record and remaining schedule gap between each team and the playoff cutline as of early May 2026
- Trading deadline activity (late July/early August) and whether teams add or subtract playoff-contending talent
- Injury status of key roster players, particularly starting pitchers and offensive core contributors
- Historical playoff qualification rates for teams at similar win-percentage levels with equivalent games remaining
- Head-to-head competitive strength within divisions and wildcard positioning relative to other MLB conferences

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbplayoffs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbplayoffs

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.