# Los Angeles D vs San Francisco First Inning Run

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbrfi
Updated: 2026-05-03T13:20:08.943Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $59K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 43¢ | −1pp | $20K | kalshi | /markets/toronto-vs-minnesota-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031245tormin |
| Yes | 43¢ | −2pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/cincinnati-vs-pittsburgh-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031335cinpit |
| Yes | 48¢ | +2pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/baltimore-vs-new-york-y-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031335balnyy |
| Yes | 47¢ | +3pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/chicago-ws-vs-san-diego-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031610cwssd |
| Yes | 49¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/milwaukee-vs-washington-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031335milwsh |
| Yes | 46¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/atlanta-vs-seattle-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may042140atlsea |
| Yes | 54¢ | +10pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/atlanta-vs-colorado-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031510atlcol |
| Yes | 47¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/san-francisco-vs-tampa-bay-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031340sftb |
| Yes | 55¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/arizona-vs-chicago-c-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031420azchc |
| Yes | 50¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/houston-vs-boston-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031335houbos |
| Yes | 51¢ | +5pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/los-angeles-d-vs-st-louis-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031415ladstl |
| Yes | 46¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/kansas-city-vs-seattle-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031610kcsea |
| Yes | 49¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/new-york-m-vs-los-angeles-a-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031607nymlaa |
| Yes | 49¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/cleveland-vs-as-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031605cleath |
| Yes | 45¢ | ±0 | $674 | kalshi | /markets/texas-vs-detroit-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031920texdet |
| Yes | 47¢ | +1pp | $228 | kalshi | /markets/philadelphia-vs-miami-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031340phimia |
| Yes | 47¢ | ±0 | $84 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-ws-vs-los-angeles-a-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may042138cwslaa |
| Yes | 49¢ | — | $7 | kalshi | /markets/baltimore-vs-new-york-y-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may041905balnyy |
| Yes | 45¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/san-diego-vs-san-francisco-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may052145sdsf |
| Yes | 47¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pittsburgh-vs-arizona-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may052140pitaz |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 41 |
| 2026-05-01 | 45 |
| 2026-05-02 | 46 |
| 2026-05-03 | 47 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Yes +15pp 31→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Yes +14pp 31→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Yes +10pp 44→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Yes +9pp 36→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Yes +9pp 36→45¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbrfi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbrfi

## License

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