# Will Aaron Judge record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbseasonhr
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:42.610Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-03

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $680

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 12¢ | +1pp | $140 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-trout-record-40-home-runs-during-2026-pr-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c40-mtrout27 |
| Colson Montgomery | 23¢ | +5pp | $133 | kalshi | /markets/will-colson-montgomery-record-30-home-runs-during-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c30-cmontgomery12 |
| Willson Contreras | 17¢ | +11pp | $108 | kalshi | /markets/will-willson-contreras-record-30-home-runs-during-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c30-wcontreras40 |
| Juan Soto | 7¢ | +1pp | $72 | kalshi | /markets/will-juan-soto-record-40-home-runs-during-2026-pro-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c40-jsoto22 |
| Will Smith | 35¢ | ±0 | $64 | kalshi | /markets/will-will-smith-record-20-home-runs-during-2026-pr-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c20-wsmith16 |
| Cody Bellinger | 3¢ | +1pp | $56 | kalshi | /markets/will-cody-bellinger-record-30-home-runs-during-202-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c30-cbellinger35 |
| Julio Rodriguez | 27¢ | +2pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-julio-rodriguez-record-30-home-runs-during-20-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c30-jrodrguez44 |
| Aaron Judge | 13¢ | +1pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-judge-record-60-home-runs-during-2026-p-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c60-ajudge99 |
| Jac Caglianone | 25¢ | +5pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-jac-caglianone-record-20-home-runs-during-202-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c20-jcaglianone14 |
| Ketel Marte | 28¢ | +3pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-ketel-marte-record-30-home-runs-during-2026-p-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c30-kmarte4 |
| Josh Naylor | 42¢ | −1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-naylor-record-20-home-runs-during-2026-p-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c20-jnaylor12 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 47¢ | +2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-crow-armstrong-record-20-home-runs-durin-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c20-pcrowarmstrong4 |
| Ben Rice | 68¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-rice-record-30-home-runs-during-2026-pro-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c30-brice22 |
| Mookie Betts | 11¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mookie-betts-record-30-home-runs-during-2026-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c30-mbetts50 |
| Shea Langeliers | 59¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shea-langeliers-record-30-home-runs-during-20-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c30-slangeliers23 |
| Willy Adames | 14¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-willy-adames-record-30-home-runs-during-2026-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c30-wadames2 |
| Aaron Judge | 83¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-judge-record-40-home-runs-during-2026-p-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c40-ajudge99 |
| Junior Caminero | 82¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-junior-caminero-record-30-home-runs-during-20-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c30-jcaminero13 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 6¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fernando-tatis-jr-record-30-home-runs-during-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c30-ftatis23 |
| Junior Caminero | 31¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-junior-caminero-record-40-home-runs-during-20-kalshi-kxmlbseasonhr-26c40-jcaminero13 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 34 |
| 2026-04-25 | 47 |
| 2026-05-02 | 35 |
| 2026-05-09 | 25 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Aaron Judge −14pp 72→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Willson Contreras +11pp 6→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Junior Caminero +11pp 20→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Jac Caglianone +10pp 13→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Josh Naylor +10pp 40→50¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract predicts a 23% chance that Aaron Judge will hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Judge has exceeded this threshold in recent years, including 62 home runs in 2022, but age, injury history, and team performance influence annual output. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether he'll maintain elite power production through a full season. Early-season performance through June and July will provide the clearest signal of whether he's on pace, as players typically establish their trajectory by mid-summer. The contract resolves after the regular season concludes in late September/early October when final statistics are official.

### Key factors

- Judge's home run rate through May-June 2026 compared to his historical seasonal pace of 35-45 home runs in recent healthy seasons
- Number of games Judge plays; injuries or missed time would significantly reduce probability of reaching 40 home runs
- Team batting environment; team offensive ranking and run-scoring context affects individual power output opportunity
- Comparative market prices show 72¢ for the same Judge contract on another Kalshi market, indicating potential mispricing or data lag
- Competitor probability at 23% suggests marginal likelihood; Judge's track record as elite power hitter argues for baseline expectations above this level

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbseasonhr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbseasonhr

## License

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