# Seattle wins by over 2.5 runs

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 36% across 20 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbspread
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:54.724Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 36% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $812K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 57¢ | +2pp | $331K | kalshi | /markets/new-york-y-wins-by-over-15-runs-new-york-y-wins-by-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031335balnyy-nyy2 |
| Los Angeles D wins by over 1.5 runs | 44¢ | +1pp | $140K | kalshi | /markets/los-angeles-d-wins-by-over-15-runs-los-angeles-d-w-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031415ladstl-lad2 |
| Toronto wins by over 1.5 runs | 42¢ | ±0 | $53K | kalshi | /markets/toronto-wins-by-over-15-runs-toronto-wins-by-over-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031245tormin-tor2 |
| New York Y wins by over 2.5 runs | 45¢ | +3pp | $46K | kalshi | /markets/new-york-y-wins-by-over-25-runs-new-york-y-wins-by-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031335balnyy-nyy3 |
| Atlanta wins by over 1.5 runs | 47¢ | +1pp | $41K | kalshi | /markets/atlanta-wins-by-over-15-runs-atlanta-wins-by-over-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031510atlcol-atl2 |
| Boston wins by over 1.5 runs | 43¢ | — | $38K | kalshi | /markets/boston-wins-by-over-15-runs-boston-wins-by-over-15-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031335houbos-bos2 |
| Milwaukee wins by over 1.5 runs | 45¢ | +2pp | $27K | kalshi | /markets/milwaukee-wins-by-over-15-runs-milwaukee-wins-by-o-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031335milwsh-mil2 |
| Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 runs | 35¢ | +2pp | $25K | kalshi | /markets/tampa-bay-wins-by-over-15-runs-tampa-bay-wins-by-o-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031340sftb-tb2 |
| Minnesota wins by over 1.5 runs | 30¢ | +2pp | $21K | kalshi | /markets/minnesota-wins-by-over-15-runs-minnesota-wins-by-o-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031245tormin-min2 |
| New York Y wins by over 3.5 runs | 35¢ | +4pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/new-york-y-wins-by-over-35-runs-new-york-y-wins-by-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031335balnyy-nyy4 |
| Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 runs | 43¢ | +1pp | $13K | kalshi | /markets/philadelphia-wins-by-over-15-runs-philadelphia-win-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031340phimia-phi2 |
| San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs | 42¢ | +1pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/san-diego-wins-by-over-15-runs-san-diego-wins-by-o-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031610cwssd-sd2 |
| Cleveland wins by over 1.5 runs | 41¢ | +1pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/cleveland-wins-by-over-15-runs-cleveland-wins-by-o-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031605cleath-cle2 |
| Seattle wins by over 1.5 runs | 34¢ | ±0 | $9K | kalshi | /markets/seattle-wins-by-over-15-runs-seattle-wins-by-over-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031610kcsea-sea2 |
| Baltimore wins by over 1.5 runs | 19¢ | +3pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/baltimore-wins-by-over-15-runs-baltimore-wins-by-o-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031335balnyy-bal2 |
| Atlanta wins by over 2.5 runs | 37¢ | ±0 | $8K | kalshi | /markets/atlanta-wins-by-over-25-runs-atlanta-wins-by-over-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031510atlcol-atl3 |
| Toronto wins by over 3.5 runs | 21¢ | +4pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/toronto-wins-by-over-35-runs-toronto-wins-by-over-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031245tormin-tor4 |
| Minnesota wins by over 3.5 runs | 14¢ | — | $4K | kalshi | /markets/minnesota-wins-by-over-35-runs-minnesota-wins-by-o-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031245tormin-min4 |
| Colorado wins by over 1.5 runs | 27¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/colorado-wins-by-over-15-runs-colorado-wins-by-ove-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031510atlcol-col2 |
| Cincinnati wins by over 3.5 runs | 17¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/cincinnati-wins-by-over-35-runs-cincinnati-wins-by-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031335cinpit-cin4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 33 |
| 2026-05-03 | 36 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · New York Y wins by over 3.5 runs +4pp 25→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Toronto wins by over 3.5 runs +4pp 16→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · New York Y wins by over 2.5 runs +3pp 35→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Baltimore wins by over 1.5 runs +3pp 21→24¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbspread
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbspread

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.