# Will any hitter record 50+ home runs and 50+ steals

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 7 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbstat
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:25.069Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-03

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $221

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perfect Game | 16¢ | ±0 | $107 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-pitcher-record-a-perfect-game-perfect-gam-kalshi-kxmlbstat-26pg-ap |
| 2+ Grand Slam | 15¢ | −1pp | $83 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-hitter-record-2-grand-slams-in-any-game-2-kalshi-kxmlbstat-26gs2-ah |
| 500+ Foot Home Run | 22¢ | — | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-hitter-record-a-500-foot-home-run-per-sta-kalshi-kxmlbstat-26hr500-ah |
| 20+ Wins | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-pitcher-record-20-wins-20-wins-kalshi-kxmlbstat-26w20-ap |
| No Hitter | 71¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-pitcher-record-a-no-hitter-no-hitter-kalshi-kxmlbstat-26nohit-ap |
| 4+ Home runs | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-hitter-record-4-home-runs-in-a-game-4-hom-kalshi-kxmlbstat-26hr4-ah |
| 50+ Home runs and 50+ Steals | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-hitter-record-50-home-runs-and-50-steals-kalshi-kxmlbstat-265050-ah |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 23 |
| 2026-04-25 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 34 |
| 2026-05-09 | 34 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market asks whether any professional baseball hitter will achieve the rare feat of 50+ home runs and 50+ stolen bases in a single season. At 24% probability, it reflects skepticism about such a combination occurring soon. The current level reflects two offsetting considerations: baseball has seen occasional 50-home-run seasons and occasional 50-steal seasons, but almost never from the same player in the same year, as these skills typically indicate different player types and playing styles. Resolution depends on 2026-2027 MLB regular seasons, where any qualifying player would need to demonstrate both power-hitting consistency and base-running speed simultaneously—a combination that has been exceptionally rare in professional baseball history. The outcome will become clearer as the 2026 MLB season progresses and player statistics accumulate through September.

### Key factors

- No MLB player has ever recorded 50+ home runs and 50+ stolen bases in a single season; the closest recent approach was 40+ HR/40+ SB by only one player in history (José Canseco, 1988)
- A player attempting this feat must balance aggressive power-hitting and base-running approaches that typically conflict, as power hitters often strike out more and run less frequently
- The 2026-2027 MLB seasons will be the evaluation period; current spring training and early-season performance of high-speed, high-power players will narrow probabilities
- Rule changes, injury patterns, or unexpected player trades could significantly alter which players have realistic opportunities to pursue this milestone
- Historical precedent suggests this represents an extreme statistical outlier in baseball performance rather than a likely outcome

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbstat
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbstat

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.