# Will all hitters combined record 2+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 17 contracts — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbstatcount
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:11.980Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-03

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season | 49¢ | +1pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-hitters-combined-record-4-30-home-runs-an-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-263030-4 |
| 7+ inside-the-park home runs | 80¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-hitters-combined-record-7-inside-the-park-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-26itphr-7 |
| 8+ inside-the-park home runs | 72¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-hitters-combined-record-8-inside-the-park-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-26itphr-8 |
| 2+ immaculate innings | 74¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-pitchers-combined-record-2-immaculate-inn-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-26immaculate-ap-2 |
| 3+ immaculate innings | 43¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-pitchers-combined-record-3-immaculate-inn-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-26immaculate-ap-3 |
| 4+ immaculate innings | 16¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-pitchers-combined-record-4-immaculate-inn-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-26immaculate-ap-4 |
| 5+ immaculate innings | 7¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-pitchers-combined-record-5-immaculate-inn-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-26immaculate-ap-5 |
| 1+ cycles | 82¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-hitters-combined-record-1-cycles-1-cycles-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-26cycle-ah-1 |
| 2+ cycles | 63¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-hitters-combined-record-2-cycles-2-cycles-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-26cycle-ah-2 |
| 3+ cycles | 34¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-hitters-combined-record-3-cycles-3-cycles-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-26cycle-ah-3 |
| 4+ cycles | 21¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-hitters-combined-record-4-cycles-4-cycles-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-26cycle-ah-4 |
| 5+ cycles | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-hitters-combined-record-5-cycles-5-cycles-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-26cycle-ah-5 |
| 6+ cycles | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-hitters-combined-record-6-cycles-6-cycles-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-26cycle-ah-6 |
| 1+ players with a 40+ home runs and 40+ steals season | 15¢ | −12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-hitters-combined-record-1-40-home-runs-an-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-264040-1 |
| 2+ players with a 40+ home runs and 40+ steals season | 5¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-hitters-combined-record-2-40-home-runs-an-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-264040-2 |
| 2+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game | 94¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-hitters-combined-record-2-instances-of-a-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-263hr-ah-2 |
| 3+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game | 91¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-hitters-combined-record-3-instances-of-a-kalshi-kxmlbstatcount-263hr-ah-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 40 |
| 2026-05-25 | 45 |
| 2026-06-01 | 39 |
| 2026-06-06 | 40 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · 4+ immaculate innings +7pp 9→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · 2+ cycles +5pp 62→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · 2+ immaculate innings +3pp 73→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · 2+ cycles −3pp 67→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · 3+ cycles +3pp 33→36¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract resolves positively if MLB players combined hit 3 or more home runs in a single game on 2+ separate occasions during the 2026 season. At 43% probability, the market suggests this is roughly even odds. The frequency of multi-home run games depends on offensive talent distribution and park effects across all 30 teams. A season with strong offensive power hitters increases the likelihood, while increased strikeout rates or more defensive-friendly ballpark conditions would lower it. The outcome will be determined by the final 2026 MLB regular season statistics, with full clarity available after October 2026 when season records are finalized.

### Key factors

- Baseline historical rate: In recent MLB seasons (2022-2025), players hitting 3+ home runs in a single game occurs roughly 5-8 times per season league-wide, so 2+ instances is well below historical norms
- Offensive environment: The 2026 season's overall home run volume, influenced by ball composition, weather patterns, and league-wide batting approach, will materially affect this outcome
- Star player availability: Injury status of elite power hitters throughout 2026 could significantly impact whether any player achieves the necessary single-game performance
- Park factors: Specific ballpark dimensions and environmental conditions at teams' home stadiums affect home run frequency for their respective rosters
- Completion date: Full resolution depends on 2026 MLB regular season conclusion in late September/early October 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbstatcount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbstatcount

## License

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