# Will Chicago WS record the most home runs in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 18 contracts — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbteamstat
Updated: 2026-07-12T23:20:50.579Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-30

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $417

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 29¢ | +4pp | $265 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-record-the-most-strikeouts-throw-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26mostks-phi |
| Boston | 5¢ | — | $80 | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-record-the-lowest-team-era-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26lowera-bos |
| Los Angeles D | 23¢ | +4pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-d-record-the-most-home-runs-in-th-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26mosthr-lad |
| Washington | 4¢ | — | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-record-the-most-home-runs-in-the-2-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26mosthr-wsh |
| New York Y | 44¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-record-the-most-home-runs-in-the-2-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26mosthr-nyy |
| Atlanta | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-record-the-highest-team-batting-avera-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26highba-atl |
| Los Angeles D | 30¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-d-record-the-highest-team-batting-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26highba-lad |
| Milwaukee | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-milwaukee-record-the-highest-team-batting-ave-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26highba-mil |
| Pittsburgh | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pittsburgh-record-the-highest-team-batting-av-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26highba-pit |
| San Francisco | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-francisco-record-the-highest-team-batting-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26highba-sf |
| St. Louis | 7¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-st-louis-record-the-highest-team-batting-aver-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26highba-stl |
| Atlanta | 22¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-record-the-lowest-team-era-in-the-202-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26lowera-atl |
| Los Angeles D | 29¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-d-record-the-lowest-team-era-in-t-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26lowera-lad |
| Milwaukee | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-milwaukee-record-the-lowest-team-era-in-the-2-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26lowera-mil |
| New York Y | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-record-the-lowest-team-era-in-the-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26lowera-nyy |
| Seattle | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-record-the-lowest-team-era-in-the-202-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26lowera-sea |
| Atlanta | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-record-the-most-home-runs-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26mosthr-atl |
| Chicago WS | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-ws-record-the-most-home-runs-in-the-2-kalshi-kxmlbteamstat-26mosthr-cws |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | 14 |
| 2026-06-28 | 23 |
| 2026-07-04 | 8 |
| 2026-07-10 | 16 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-06 · New York Y −5pp 42→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Philadelphia +4pp 18→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-06 · Los Angeles D +4pp 21→25¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the implied odds that the Chicago White Sox will lead all MLB teams in home runs during the 2026 regular season. At 16%, it suggests the market views Chicago as a moderate-to-long-shot contender for this specific offensive category. The contract's current valuation likely reflects Chicago's roster composition, historical power output, and expected lineups relative to other teams. Key drivers include team personnel decisions made during the offseason and spring training, which determine whether Chicago will prioritize power hitters or balance other offensive elements. The resolution will occur when MLB concludes the 2026 regular season in late September or early October, at which point official statistics will definitively show which team recorded the most home runs. Trading volume remains minimal, indicating limited market interest in this particular outcome relative to other baseball metrics.

### Key factors

- Chicago's actual home run total through the 2026 regular season versus competing teams, measured from official MLB statistics
- Changes to the White Sox roster composition during the 2025-2026 offseason and spring training that affect power-hitting capability
- Injury status of key power hitters on Chicago's roster throughout the regular season
- Home run production rates for other teams projected to be competitive in this category, particularly division rivals
- Ballpark factors and play styles that either encourage or discourage home run attempts by the White Sox organization

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbteamstat
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbteamstat

## License

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