# Will A's score over 7.5 runs

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 43% across 20 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbteamtotal
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:57.132Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 43% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $15K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee over 4.5 runs scored | 47¢ | +10pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-milwaukee-score-over-45-runs-milwaukee-over-4-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031335milwsh-mil5 |
| New York Y over 7.5 runs scored | 23¢ | +12pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-score-over-75-runs-new-york-y-over-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031335balnyy-nyy8 |
| New York Y over 4.5 runs scored | 55¢ | +27pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-score-over-45-runs-new-york-y-over-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031335balnyy-nyy5 |
| New York Y over 5.5 runs scored | 44¢ | +29pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-score-over-55-runs-new-york-y-over-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031335balnyy-nyy6 |
| Cincinnati over 3.5 runs scored | 49¢ | +25pp | $721 | kalshi | /markets/will-cincinnati-score-over-35-runs-cincinnati-over-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031335cinpit-cin4 |
| Baltimore over 3.5 runs scored | 46¢ | +8pp | $687 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-score-over-35-runs-baltimore-over-3-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031335balnyy-bal4 |
| Miami over 3.5 runs scored | 48¢ | +13pp | $532 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-score-over-35-runs-miami-over-35-runs-s-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031340phimia-mia4 |
| Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs scored | 50¢ | — | $526 | kalshi | /markets/will-pittsburgh-score-over-35-runs-pittsburgh-over-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031335cinpit-pit4 |
| Atlanta over 5.5 runs scored | 49¢ | +16pp | $396 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-score-over-55-runs-atlanta-over-55-ru-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031510atlcol-atl6 |
| Baltimore over 1.5 runs scored | 73¢ | +26pp | $353 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-score-over-15-runs-baltimore-over-1-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031335balnyy-bal2 |
| Philadelphia over 4.5 runs scored | 46¢ | +14pp | $303 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-score-over-45-runs-philadelphia-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031340phimia-phi5 |
| Kansas City over 3.5 runs scored | 52¢ | +17pp | $291 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-score-over-35-runs-kansas-city-ov-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031610kcsea-kc4 |
| New York M over 5.5 runs scored | 36¢ | +4pp | $287 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-m-score-over-55-runs-new-york-m-over-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031607nymlaa-nym6 |
| San Francisco over 7.5 runs scored | 10¢ | +1pp | $211 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-francisco-score-over-75-runs-san-francisc-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031340sftb-sf8 |
| Los Angeles D over 5.5 runs scored | 41¢ | +30pp | $199 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-d-score-over-55-runs-los-angeles-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031415ladstl-lad6 |
| Philadelphia over 3.5 runs scored | 58¢ | +33pp | $156 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-score-over-35-runs-philadelphia-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031340phimia-phi4 |
| Seattle over 7.5 runs scored | 10¢ | ±0 | $142 | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-score-over-75-runs-seattle-over-75-ru-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031610kcsea-sea8 |
| Tampa Bay over 4.5 runs scored | 44¢ | +12pp | $94 | kalshi | /markets/will-tampa-bay-score-over-45-runs-tampa-bay-over-4-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031340sftb-tb5 |
| Los Angeles D over 7.5 runs scored | 23¢ | +12pp | $90 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-d-score-over-75-runs-los-angeles-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031415ladstl-lad8 |
| San Francisco over 2.5 runs scored | 65¢ | +14pp | $55 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-francisco-score-over-25-runs-san-francisc-kalshi-kxmlbteamtotal-26may031340sftb-sf3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 25 |
| 2026-05-03 | 40 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Philadelphia over 3.5 runs scored +33pp 23→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Los Angeles D over 5.5 runs scored +30pp 4→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · New York Y over 5.5 runs scored +29pp 9→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · New York Y over 4.5 runs scored +27pp 26→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Baltimore over 1.5 runs scored +26pp 39→65¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbteamtotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbteamtotal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.