# Will Sandy Alcantara be traded before Aug 5, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 18 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbtrade
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.239Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-05

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $27

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | 18¢ | −1pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-tarik-skubal-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-tari-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-tsku |
| Luis Severino | 39¢ | +10pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-luis-severino-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-lui-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-lsev |
| Zac Gallen | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zac-gallen-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-zac-ga-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-zgal |
| Joe Ryan | 41¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-ryan-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-joe-ryan-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-jrya |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fernando-tatis-jr-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-ftat |
| Luis Castillo | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-luis-castillo-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-lui-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-lcas |
| Christian Walker | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-christian-walker-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-cwal |
| Jose Berrios | 17¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jose-berrios-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-jose-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-jber |
| Randy Arozarena | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-randy-arozarena-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-r-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-raro |
| Yandy Diaz | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yandy-diaz-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-yandy-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-ydia |
| Sandy Alcantara | 64¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sandy-alcantara-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-s-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-salc |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jazz-chisholm-jr-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-jchi |
| Hunter Greene | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hunter-greene-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-hun-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-hgre |
| Steven Kwan | 31¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-steven-kwan-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-steve-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-skwa |
| Adley Rutschman | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-adley-rutschman-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-a-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-arut |
| Jarren Duran | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jarren-duran-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-jarr-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-jdur |
| Jo Adell | 24¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jo-adell-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-jo-adell-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-jade |
| Gunnar Henderson | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gunnar-henderson-be-traded-before-aug-5-2026-kalshi-kxmlbtrade-26aug05-ghen |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 5 |
| 2026-04-25 | 10 |
| 2026-05-02 | 28 |
| 2026-05-06 | 35 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Luis Severino +10pp 29→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Steven Kwan +10pp 22→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Jose Berrios +9pp 8→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Jo Adell +9pp 15→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Sandy Alcantara +7pp 55→62¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 27% chance that Sandy Alcántara, a Miami Marlins pitcher, will be traded before August 5, 2026. The low probability reflects that Alcántara is a valuable franchise cornerstone under contract and the Marlins have little financial incentive to trade him mid-season. The estimate could shift based on two factors: the team's win-loss record by late July, which would signal whether they're competitive enough to retain him, and any reported trade interest or negotiations emerging in late July when contending teams typically become active in the trade deadline market. The critical resolution point is the MLB trade deadline on August 5, 2026, after which any trade would render the contract void. Current low trading volume ($2 in 24-hour volume) suggests limited market attention to this specific outcome.

### Key factors

- Alcántara's injury history and current health status entering summer, which affects both his trade value and the Marlins' willingness to retain him
- Miami's competitive position and playoff odds by late July, determining whether they view the team as a contender worth keeping their ace or a seller worth trading him
- Reports of trade interest from contending teams with available prospects and payroll capacity between late July and August 5
- Alcántara's contract terms and any no-trade clause provisions that could restrict potential destinations
- The broader trade market activity level in late July, as deadline activity typically intensifies only in the final 2-3 weeks before August 5

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbtrade
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbtrade

## License

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