# Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 20 contracts — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbwins
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.641Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-08

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90+ wins | 15¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-win-at-least-90-games-this-season-90-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sea-26-t90 |
| 80+ wins | 50¢ | −4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-win-at-least-80-games-this-season-8-kalshi-kxmlbwins-bal-26-t80 |
| 95+ wins | 44¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-at-least-95-games-this-season-95-kalshi-kxmlbwins-atl-26-t95 |
| 85+ wins | 42¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-win-at-least-85-games-this-season-85-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sea-26-t85 |
| 85+ wins | 92¢ | ±0 | $750 | kalshi | /markets/will-milwaukee-win-at-least-85-games-this-season-8-kalshi-kxmlbwins-mil-26-t85 |
| 70+ wins | 83¢ | ±0 | $600 | kalshi | /markets/will-as-win-at-least-70-games-this-season-70-wins-kalshi-kxmlbwins-ath-26-t70 |
| 100+ wins | 17¢ | +3pp | $416 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-win-at-least-100-games-this-season-kalshi-kxmlbwins-nyy-26-t100 |
| 80+ wins | 57¢ | +1pp | $376 | kalshi | /markets/will-pittsburgh-win-at-least-80-games-this-season-kalshi-kxmlbwins-pit-26-t80 |
| 90+ wins | 21¢ | −1pp | $325 | kalshi | /markets/will-tampa-bay-win-at-least-90-games-this-season-9-kalshi-kxmlbwins-tb-26-t90 |
| 95+ wins | 48¢ | +4pp | $252 | kalshi | /markets/will-milwaukee-win-at-least-95-games-this-season-9-kalshi-kxmlbwins-mil-26-t95 |
| 100+ wins | 18¢ | −2pp | $231 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-at-least-100-games-this-season-10-kalshi-kxmlbwins-atl-26-t100 |
| 105+ wins | 7¢ | −1pp | $107 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-at-least-105-games-this-season-10-kalshi-kxmlbwins-atl-26-t105 |
| 110+ wins | 11¢ | +1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-d-win-at-least-110-games-this-sea-kalshi-kxmlbwins-lad-26-t110 |
| 65+ wins | 73¢ | −1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-francisco-win-at-least-65-games-this-seas-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sf-26-t65 |
| 80+ wins | 11¢ | ±0 | $94 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-francisco-win-at-least-80-games-this-seas-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sf-26-t80 |
| 90+ wins | 70¢ | ±0 | $77 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-at-least-90-games-this-season-90-kalshi-kxmlbwins-atl-26-t90 |
| 80+ wins | 60¢ | +3pp | $75 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-win-at-least-80-games-this-season-80-kalshi-kxmlbwins-az-26-t80 |
| 75+ wins | 22¢ | +6pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-francisco-win-at-least-75-games-this-seas-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sf-26-t75 |
| 80+ wins | 43¢ | +2pp | $41 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-win-at-least-80-games-this-season-80-kalshi-kxmlbwins-hou-26-t80 |
| 80+ wins | 34¢ | +1pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-as-win-at-least-80-games-this-season-80-wins-kalshi-kxmlbwins-ath-26-t80 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 44 |
| 2026-06-12 | 46 |
| 2026-06-19 | 47 |
| 2026-06-25 | 46 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · 100+ wins −19pp 30→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · 90+ wins −14pp 33→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · 75+ wins −14pp 37→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · 90+ wins +13pp 60→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · 90+ wins +13pp 64→77¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 54% probability that the San Diego Padres will win at least 75 games during the 2026 Major League Baseball season. The midpoint probability suggests roughly even odds of reaching this threshold, which represents a below-average win total for a competitive team. Performance through early May provides the primary driver of current odds, as approximately one-sixth of the season has elapsed and team record directly constrains maximum possible wins. The remaining 110+ games will determine whether the Padres reach 75 wins, with injuries, trade deadline moves, and month-to-month consistency significantly affecting trajectory. As the season progresses through June and July, updated win totals will either increase confidence in reaching 75 wins or shift probability downward if the team falls behind pace.

### Key factors

- Current win-loss record as of May 3, 2026, and games-won pace relative to 75-win threshold
- Implied probability of 85+ wins (57¢) versus 75+ wins (54¢) suggests modest confidence in stronger performance
- Depth and availability of starting rotation and core position players compared to preseason projections
- Trading deadline activity (late July) and whether team makes acquisitions to improve playoff positioning
- Run differential and luck-adjusted metrics, which historically predict win-total sustainability better than raw record through one month

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbwins
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbwins

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.