# Will Kansas City have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 8 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbworstrecord
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:51.878Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-29

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 3¢ | ±0 | $780 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-have-the-worst-record-in-pro-baseball-i-kalshi-kxmlbworstrecord-26-mia |
| Colorado | 25¢ | −9pp | $627 | kalshi | /markets/will-colorado-have-the-worst-record-in-pro-basebal-kalshi-kxmlbworstrecord-26-col |
| St. Louis | 4¢ | −2pp | $511 | kalshi | /markets/will-st-louis-have-the-worst-record-in-pro-basebal-kalshi-kxmlbworstrecord-26-stl |
| Chicago WS | 6¢ | ±0 | $413 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-ws-have-the-worst-record-in-pro-baseb-kalshi-kxmlbworstrecord-26-cws |
| New York M | 3¢ | +2pp | $404 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-m-have-the-worst-record-in-pro-baseb-kalshi-kxmlbworstrecord-26-nym |
| Los Angeles A | 11¢ | +3pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-a-have-the-worst-record-in-pro-ba-kalshi-kxmlbworstrecord-26-laa |
| Minnesota | 7¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-have-the-worst-record-in-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbworstrecord-26-min |
| Washington | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-have-the-worst-record-in-pro-baseb-kalshi-kxmlbworstrecord-26-wsh |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 16 |
| 2026-04-19 | 16 |
| 2026-04-26 | 9 |
| 2026-05-03 | 9 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-30 · Colorado −21pp 37→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Colorado −17pp 33→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Colorado +15pp 16→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Chicago WS +15pp 8→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · New York M +13pp 2→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates an 11% chance that the Kansas City Royals finish the 2026 MLB regular season with the worst record in baseball. The prediction reflects early-season performance and roster composition relative to other struggling teams. The Royals' probability sits above some peers like St. Louis (4%) and New York Mets (3%), but below Chicago White Sox (9%), suggesting Kansas City is viewed as moderately vulnerable to finishing last. The main drivers are the team's win-loss record as games accumulate through the season and injury status of key players. The probability will clarify significantly as May and June progress, with the final determination coming when all 162 games conclude in late September 2026. Teams with similar records and talent levels will see their probabilities fluctuate inversely as the season unfolds.

### Key factors

- Kansas City's current win-loss record and run differential compared to other bottom-tier teams as of early May
- Injury status and availability of the Royals' key position players and starting pitchers through the season
- Trade deadline activity in late July, where struggling teams may sell off assets and further weaken rosters
- Performance trajectory of competing teams like Chicago White Sox, St. Louis, and New York Mets who also have low probabilities of worst record
- Remaining strength of schedule for Kansas City versus other non-competitive teams in their division and league

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbworstrecord
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbworstrecord

## License

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