# Will Los Angeles D have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 6 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbwstreak
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.666Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-15

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $384

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago C | 25¢ | +3pp | $338 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-c-have-the-longest-winning-streak-in-kalshi-kxmlbwstreak-26-chc |
| Milwaukee | 6¢ | +1pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-milwaukee-have-the-longest-winning-streak-in-kalshi-kxmlbwstreak-26-mil |
| Atlanta | 4¢ | +2pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-have-the-longest-winning-streak-in-th-kalshi-kxmlbwstreak-26-atl |
| Seattle | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-have-the-longest-winning-streak-in-th-kalshi-kxmlbwstreak-26-sea |
| Los Angeles D | 18¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-d-have-the-longest-winning-streak-kalshi-kxmlbwstreak-26-lad |
| San Diego | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-have-the-longest-winning-streak-in-kalshi-kxmlbwstreak-26-sd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 25 |
| 2026-04-25 | 17 |
| 2026-05-02 | 8 |
| 2026-05-08 | 13 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Chicago C +13pp 4→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Los Angeles D +8pp 11→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Seattle +5pp 3→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Los Angeles D +4pp 16→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Chicago C +3pp 17→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether the Los Angeles Dodgers will compile the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season. At 14% probability, traders assess this as a meaningful but unlikely outcome. The Dodgers would need to sustain consecutive wins longer than all other 29 teams manage during the season. Key drivers of this probability include the Dodgers' roster composition and health relative to other contenders, the inherent difficulty of streak length (most seasons see streaks peak in the 8-15 game range), and early-season performance establishing momentum. The metric resolves definitively once MLB's regular season concludes in late September or early October, when the longest streak across all teams becomes verifiable. Any historical context suggests fewer than 1-in-7 chances for a specific team to hold this distinction, making the 14% assessment reflective of baseline frequency adjusted for current team strength expectations.

### Key factors

- Dodgers' win-loss record through May and June will indicate streak-building capacity relative to AL and NL contenders
- Historical MLB data shows the season's longest winning streak typically ranges from 8-15 games, constraining what threshold the Dodgers must reach
- Roster injury status and recent trades before deadline will materially affect whether streaks of 12+ games become feasible
- Comparative strength of competitors like Houston, Atlanta, and top AL teams determines what streak length actually secures the season-long title
- Performance in high-leverage games mid-season provides forward signal for whether the team maintains focus for extended run-building periods

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbwstreak
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbwstreak

## License

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