# MLS: 2026 Coach of the Year

> 2026 Coach of the Year: Marc Dos Santos leads at 52%, runner-up 44% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mls-coach-of
Updated: 2026-05-03T10:20:14.542Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-20

## Headline

- Leader: 2026 Coach of the Year: Marc Dos Santos at 52%
- Runner-up: 2026 Coach of the Year: Dean Smith at 44%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Marc Dos Santos | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-marc-dos-santos-polymarket-0xf9b7d3fdb9de45129fb3b31d0bc921b19e25f44640e7b6fd5ddbeb79f4d486c9 |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Dean Smith | 44¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-dean-smith-polymarket-0x7becce5fd42ea0701aa3ff8a0e766d302a5fd9208f744c44eda530c577b14591 |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Gerardo “Tata” Martino | 44¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-gerardo-tata-martino-polymarket-0xd52e5014dbc9af7a3077c32dc8b31ee3868bce7bbf614d1430464a46cf2f6b9b |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Cameron Knowles | 35¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-cameron-knowles-polymarket-0x92df74a189e087e4fb65e190c227fa22cd9f343ca8d81b000d8e755da3fe8705 |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Mikey Varas | 33¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-mikey-varas-polymarket-0x78bb07f24792b6a39d452364754ea6323ea0e6bf2c9980b0989c664294ec0f44 |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Robin Fraser | 33¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-robin-fraser-polymarket-0x5b9b02a9eb59c032617c1a1870b4c5c0b9ffbe316346ba02fa42f70de08d4674 |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Henrik Rydström | 32¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-henrik-rydstrm-polymarket-0xc3c8669701ebbfeaee398ae690a82c7550d934d028dd66dd77d16d7335fd965f |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Nico Estévez | 29¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-nico-estvez-polymarket-0x5dc2ddbc594ab2c12936cb2abfee449b6fbea227e13c7b948b9ff11f731333ae |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Pascal Jansen | 22¢ | −10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-pascal-jansen-polymarket-0xc832856162087274fa5ddcac6d3fbb071d2b54c8d0f3e081459ec9b422a7ffd0 |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: René Weiler | 22¢ | −12pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-ren-weiler-polymarket-0xa660a70dc201f227c4bd0c11dbb7963e41506c7b5f69461b1500b96173c9fbd5 |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Gregg Berhalter | 18¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-gregg-berhalter-polymarket-0x42952805a48f6bc646b9e8746a3ca198d5ac030dff94033060724a548afcb9d8 |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Marco Donadel | 17¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-marco-donadel-polymarket-0xd92598051534bcfd190f712060b5124d317894f7f99a7e72731aa596ea17e4ce |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Matt Wells | 16¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-matt-wells-polymarket-0x7c8974670725ffeb3858f6c198735b434cff8c1afb865773ce312ecc270a0b24 |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: B.J. Callaghan | 16¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-bj-callaghan-polymarket-0x35bf84c3c903ae5b1103ba440cd5994699f3e22e5bde21e3aa8cc894543d9f82 |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Michael Bradley | 16¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-michael-bradley-polymarket-0xc157c035a66372362e7d326609ebc57638b6e0719e26e1b12a92a3ac85ef9a07 |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Phil Neville | 16¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-phil-neville-polymarket-0x7579861176d9b2d4173976ca764b483af7fda1d7409021325df5a64f3c53df4f |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Pablo Mastroeni | 16¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-pablo-mastroeni-polymarket-0xaa3c2c06e7f3fb2546b166d968b8c2cd55220b02aa2b88b5b80b42f83885afa9 |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Eric Quill | 16¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-eric-quill-polymarket-0xf62cdc20c147605fd224ad751f1b1b19d04a2d9e132258023666153784dbee89 |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Javier Mascherano | 15¢ | −12pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-javier-mascherano-polymarket-0x29e6e74503980d8adcb80fc3ac4abe3d4b4e0742578fa41da3a7f909d9444197 |
| 2026 Coach of the Year: Pat Noonan | 7¢ | −24pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-coach-of-the-year-pat-noonan-polymarket-0x22518589c54b4ba99ce67ac4fa8780baca0161ac77ba587e3830840a4e502091 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 2026 Coach of the Year: Marc Dos Santos | 2026 Coach of the Year: Dean Smith | 2026 Coach of the Year: Gerardo “Tata” Martino |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 27 | — | — |
| 2026-04-09 | 27 | — | 32 |
| 2026-04-10 | 26 | 33 | 29 |
| 2026-04-19 | 25 | 25 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 44 | 44 |
| 2026-04-26 | — | 42 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 50 | 44 | 48 |
| 2026-05-03 | 45 | 20 | 27 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · 2026 Coach of the Year: Pascal Jansen +43pp 3→46¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · 2026 Coach of the Year: Pat Noonan +29pp 21→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · 2026 Coach of the Year: Marc Dos Santos +27pp 23→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · 2026 Coach of the Year: Javier Mascherano +25pp 6→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · 2026 Coach of the Year: Pat Noonan −24pp 35→11¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 51% probability indicates that a single MLS coach is assessed as having roughly even odds of winning the 2026 Coach of the Year award, compared to the combined field of alternatives. The current leader's probability reflects both their team's early-season performance and individual coaching performance metrics that voters typically value. Movement in this probability would depend primarily on team playoff positioning and coaching tenure stability through the regular season—injuries, trades, or sudden team collapse would shift expectations. The resolution depends on actual voting by MLS media and coaches, typically occurring in December 2026 after the season concludes and playoff results are finalized.

### Key factors

- The leader is priced at 51% while runner-up is at 39%, indicating market concentration on two coaches rather than dispersal across the 20-candidate field
- Multiple coaches including Javier Mascherano, Raphael Wicky, B.J. Callaghan, and Nico Estévez are bunched between 18-21 cents, suggesting moderate uncertainty about second-tier candidates
- Award voting typically weights team performance, playoff advancement, and coaching decisions equally—changes in standings or elimination variance significantly between May and December
- Only Mascherano's contract shows material 24-hour volume ($54), indicating most trading activity concentrates on the identified leader rather than alternative candidates
- The 2026 season runs through November with playoff resolution by December, making in-season coaching changes, injuries to star players, and playoff performance the primary catalysts for probability shifts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mls-coach-of
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mls-coach-of

## License

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