# MLS: 2026 Defender of the Year

> 2026 Defender of the Year: Tristan Blackmon leads at 48%, runner-up 47% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mls-defender-of
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:42.077Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-12

## Headline

- Leader: 2026 Defender of the Year: Tristan Blackmon at 48%
- Runner-up: 2026 Defender of the Year: Eddie Segura at 47%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Tristan Blackmon | 48¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-tristan-blackmon-polymarket-0xe08b00c6da1c3f1bc7b42c727234991a7bf4b44d65ec3377fb150b5956996da7 |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Eddie Segura | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-eddie-segura-polymarket-0xf346172b725526d53d3e416205cb6ef783e57def5fbebf984d4ac08e56ffa14c |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Birk Risa | 46¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-birk-risa-polymarket-0xf563b02b7be1ad0438cf4a478bd91b2fedce950b4f5cefe9e20df89d2f05a834 |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: David Brekalo | 17¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-david-brekalo-polymarket-0x081f129782a7dffdd7f86101c3e9eedcffd5bb8b818ad241a0fb86c5d2ab6221 |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Miles Robinson | 16¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-miles-robinson-polymarket-0x7c7b02dbb7c761e5487f3dd0d9e0f45fadca93a4d58872c0b9d54aea23037317 |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Donovan Pines | 15¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-donovan-pines-polymarket-0x252833110db865ab0e5ceaa5c70b66f3ffedd23c05b3ce19b7ef8210b3539ef2 |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Andreas Maxsø | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-andreas-maxs-polymarket-0x61e2d5d085dff81d95d34a425268320b29f77301ec93f87b78c4da8276b2fc52 |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Dave Romney | 14¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-dave-romney-polymarket-0xf718904ae553ac567e17ee535c3cebf5400456f2a8328329c85bc7c4d21fc6ae |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Jakob Glesnes | 13¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-jakob-glesnes-polymarket-0x5b4ef59b500fb83cbe45380d4ccf5d472d7c2e9b5513bf15f318bc6f7a0b77d5 |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Jack Elliott | 13¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-jack-elliott-polymarket-0x6118e3aea5b691c10fd61975a248b09c935007c31b006a6ebe0bfa53d3a74a16 |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Miguel Tapias | 12¢ | −9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-miguel-tapias-polymarket-0x8431ecfb72b2c610338e6bb7cd35513e6b94093734c74bdb473c5d9a12acfcc4 |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Sebastien Ibeagha | 12¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-sebastien-ibeagha-polymarket-0xb1a5ca74965a2d320044afde3ab0292a4cc9d01cbf62c42fb839353e7ddae10d |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Zac McGraw | 11¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-zac-mcgraw-polymarket-0x56aa243c0f2e0000c178977d3647f69329302e781eb7a392692051c7b14d72e0 |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Justen Glad | 7¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-justen-glad-polymarket-0x27988026e8d0456f3fdd9d143269339662d2df5011d079eba51999704c5394e1 |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Maya Yoshida | 5¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-maya-yoshida-polymarket-0xcfeb2ea0a20be51fe26d733bfc39499b865b5c4becf5a16251798563dd34dab9 |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Robin Jansson | 5¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-robin-jansson-polymarket-0x96e8e4553dfa5ad1a65ee9944c86ba265a08139c057af6b6454c2188744bac4b |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Jackson Ragen | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-jackson-ragen-polymarket-0xa3615eaa01586cdeba4597b13d6aac1c59cff72af731e97896ab365a9acfc8ea |
| 2026 Defender of the Year: Michael Boxall | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-defender-of-the-year-michael-boxall-polymarket-0x3ddb9f340484d75c94ca73d651dcff64dd158ba167c9f688f72ab1c03ef6bed9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 2026 Defender of the Year: Tristan Blackmon | 2026 Defender of the Year: Eddie Segura | 2026 Defender of the Year: Birk Risa |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 38 | 38 | 38 |
| 2026-04-22 | 42 | 40 | 42 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | — | 43 |
| 2026-04-26 | 39 | — | 43 |
| 2026-05-02 | 30 | 36 | 33 |
| 2026-05-09 | 47 | 47 | 48 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · 2026 Defender of the Year: Michael Boxall −27pp 31→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 2026 Defender of the Year: Eddie Segura +23pp 19→42¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · 2026 Defender of the Year: Zac McGraw −22pp 40→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · 2026 Defender of the Year: Tristan Blackmon −21pp 30→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 2026 Defender of the Year: Birk Risa +21pp 21→42¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current consensus that the leading candidate has roughly a 24% chance of winning the 2026 MLS Defender of the Year award. The market shows meaningful spread across multiple candidates, with the top four defenders clustered between 16–24%, indicating genuine uncertainty about who will emerge as the season's best defensive performer. The award typically depends on defensive statistics (tackles, clearances, interceptions), team success, and voting patterns from coaches, players, and media. Resolution will occur after the 2026 MLS regular season concludes and voters submit their ballots, likely in November or December 2026. Current pricing suggests no single defender has secured clear favoritism, leaving room for performance during the season to reshape expectations.

### Key factors

- The top four candidates occupy 16–24% probability each, indicating a competitive field with no dominant favorite; any injury or poor season performance could shift probabilities materially.
- Voting composition and historical biases matter: the award typically favors defenders on playoff-contending teams, so mid-season team standings will likely influence final voting behavior.
- Contract liquidity and volume vary widely ($54–80 24h volume across top markets), suggesting some depth in market interest but limited consensus conviction in any single outcome.
- 2026 regular season performance from May through October will determine which defenders accumulate the statistics and accolades that drive voting; current prices reflect pre-season or early-season expectations.
- Multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means only one defender will resolve to 100¢; the remaining 99¢ distributed across losers implies high expected variance as the season unfolds.

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mls-defender-of
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mls-defender-of

## License

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