# MLS: 2026 Most Valuable Player

> 2026 Most Valuable Player: Dejan Joveljic leads at 45%, runner-up 38% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mls-most-valuable-player
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.263Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: 2026 Most Valuable Player: Dejan Joveljic at 45%
- Runner-up: 2026 Most Valuable Player: Carles Gil at 38%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $396

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Dejan Joveljic | 45¢ | ±0 | $30 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-dejan-joveljic-polymarket-0xedb2d8e0c5b0f3926ce8e044ed744cdd8e52d3915bcd94311b32ed3708e60d39 |
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Carles Gil | 38¢ | −1pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-carles-gil-polymarket-0x635436266b29b8ab0cfdc19b7c1bb582bb060a9a2d9e3895ed2e603279710fa4 |
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Sam Surridge | 38¢ | +1pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-sam-surridge-polymarket-0x359232df9cfeb7ffdaaef616b919e0195ec3044e3d8993fd9036b78c7ac8e5c1 |
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Emil Forsberg | 38¢ | −2pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-emil-forsberg-polymarket-0x5f772337b80a6bd8631be6f23bdb70cc4de4a14cfc16ceff80359400e20a2201 |
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Evander | 37¢ | −3pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-evander-polymarket-0x3c59ab397adfcfbbcfb559848e4f06122016f3daa1a45d335021ca9cfdeb1857 |
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Anders Dreyer | 37¢ | +5pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-anders-dreyer-polymarket-0xe28ae51454abeb60074bd008dd723f58d6a0c710974030275b78dc526e9ebf5b |
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Denis Bouanga | 33¢ | +3pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-denis-bouanga-polymarket-0x5cb9cfd001bf216e523097cf1dcd7fc28c0366a8e394806e444c5cacc00d7f8c |
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Lionel Messi | 32¢ | +4pp | $36 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-lionel-messi-polymarket-0x6700893b42ca056ec17e9ca0b6776ab2901b49ca7b1e5460da2b9693deb2857a |
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Son Heung-min | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-son-heung-min-polymarket-0x4d81d6fccb9a7568441bc29563d9add7a86de1f69c2972aa4972e14f4c3bdceb |
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Luis Suárez | 31¢ | −2pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-luis-surez-polymarket-0x7b746baccdf8f81b9fe0a5841336ffe291a744470efeddddabe04d438634ed9d |
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Sergio Busquets | 30¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-sergio-busquets-polymarket-0x5e4c22e2de4e454145f434c9383623273a0cb9263bb9ac3e279854c0cf7a54a2 |
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Thomas Müller | 29¢ | −4pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-thomas-mller-polymarket-0xbb39203b1670df6e1f37f0c8196888ad900d079b93ab55bc4d8c146b4d6d86d3 |
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Petar Musa | 5¢ | −4pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-petar-musa-polymarket-0x89eab7372dc13d1d62b531069ecca0db4ff6c148adee7f056ad589d4e972fcfa |
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Martin Ojeda | 4¢ | −16pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-martin-ojeda-polymarket-0x3846a0ae9c8934930225840fed9876f15dfe58fc977494747e969049a7013851 |
| 2026 Most Valuable Player: Philip Zinckernagel | 4¢ | −25pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/mls-2026-most-valuable-player-philip-zinckernagel-polymarket-0x257b182496b7f49787000094c4a8d515cbf59a5b67bf1e7a4cfac5e491d83c22 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 2026 Most Valuable Player: Dejan Joveljic | 2026 Most Valuable Player: Carles Gil | 2026 Most Valuable Player: Sam Surridge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 13 | — | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 13 | — | 41 |
| 2026-04-12 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2026-04-23 | — | — | 29 |
| 2026-04-28 | 41 | 49 | 43 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 | 39 | 31 |
| 2026-05-09 | 39 | 37 | 38 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · 2026 Most Valuable Player: Thomas Müller −28pp 37→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 2026 Most Valuable Player: Thomas Müller +28pp 9→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · 2026 Most Valuable Player: Philip Zinckernagel −25pp 32→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 2026 Most Valuable Player: Denis Bouanga +25pp 11→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 2026 Most Valuable Player: Sam Surridge +24pp 13→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 27% probability indicates the market's assessment that the current leading candidate has roughly a one-in-four chance of winning the 2026 MLS MVP award. With the 2026 MLS season underway, the market is pricing in uncertainty across multiple contenders, as the eventual winner will depend on individual player performance metrics including goals, assists, and overall impact over the full regular season and playoff period. The gap between the leading candidate at 27% and the runner-up at 19% suggests moderate confidence in the frontrunner, but significant probability mass remains distributed across other players. Key drivers include each candidate's injury status, playing time consistency, team performance and playoff depth, and media/voter perception as the season progresses. The award will be decided by MLS media voting typically conducted in November or December after the season concludes, making remaining months of competition the primary catalyst for resolving this market.

### Key factors

- Current candidate's injury history and availability—sustained absences would reduce their chances while competitors accumulate statistics
- Team playoff performance and individual statistical accumulation (goals, assists, clean sheets depending on position)—stronger team records typically produce MVP candidates
- Mid-season media narrative and analyst coverage—voter perception shifts as storylines evolve through summer and fall
- Competitive balance across the leading candidates—if multiple players maintain similar statistical production, the market may rebalance significantly
- Historical voting patterns—MLS MVP voters have favored certain positions and performance thresholds that may advantage or disadvantage the current leader

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mls-most-valuable-player
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mls-most-valuable-player

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