# Will Los Angeles F win the MLS Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 7 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlscup
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.999Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-08

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 24¢ | +1pp | $889 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-win-the-mls-cup-miami-kalshi-kxmlscup-26-mia |
| Los Angeles F | 8¢ | ±0 | $265 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-f-win-the-mls-cup-los-angeles-f-kalshi-kxmlscup-26-lafc |
| Nashville | 6¢ | ±0 | $222 | kalshi | /markets/will-nashville-win-the-mls-cup-nashville-kalshi-kxmlscup-26-nsh |
| Seattle | 7¢ | ±0 | $90 | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-win-the-mls-cup-seattle-kalshi-kxmlscup-26-sea |
| Chicago | 4¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-win-the-mls-cup-chicago-kalshi-kxmlscup-26-chi |
| Vancouver | 11¢ | +3pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-vancouver-win-the-mls-cup-vancouver-kalshi-kxmlscup-26-van |
| Cincinnati | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cincinnati-win-the-mls-cup-cincinnati-kalshi-kxmlscup-26-cin |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 25 |
| 2026-06-12 | 9 |
| 2026-06-19 | 7 |
| 2026-06-26 | 16 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Miami +3pp 20→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Vancouver +3pp 9→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 9% probability reflects the market's assessment that Los Angeles F has a 1-in-11 chance of winning the 2026 MLS Cup. The low probability likely reflects Los Angeles F's current competitive position relative to other MLS teams, based on regular season performance, roster strength, and playoff track record. The main factor that would adjust this probability is regular season results through mid-2026, as wins and losses directly affect playoff seeding and tournament likelihood. The MLS Cup playoff structure typically concludes in November-December, making the end-of-regular-season standings the critical catalyst that clarifies Los Angeles F's path to the championship. Real-time competitive outcomes and injury reports during the regular season will create ongoing pressure on this probability.

### Key factors

- Los Angeles F's current league standing, points differential, and goal differential compared to the median MLS team
- Historical playoff success rate for teams seeded in Los Angeles F's expected playoff position range
- Key player availability and injury status for Los Angeles F's roster entering the 2026 playoffs
- Recent head-to-head performance and strength of schedule remaining in the 2026 regular season
- Comparative probabilities for other MLS teams, which would indicate if this 9% reflects relative weakness or league-wide uncertainty

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlscup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlscup

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.