# Will Los Angeles FC record the first goal of the game

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlsftts
Updated: 2026-07-25T19:20:51.082Z
Category: sports
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-09

## Headline

- Probability: 38% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC | 68¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-fc-record-the-first-goal-of-the-g-kalshi-kxmlsftts-26jul25lafcskc-lafc |
| Sporting Kansas City | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sporting-kansas-city-record-the-first-goal-of-kalshi-kxmlsftts-26jul25lafcskc-skc |
| No Goal | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-no-goal-be-scored-no-goal-kalshi-kxmlsftts-26jul25porrsl-none |
| Portland Timbers | 44¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-portland-timbers-record-the-first-goal-of-the-kalshi-kxmlsftts-26jul25porrsl-por |
| Real Salt Lake | 43¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-salt-lake-record-the-first-goal-of-the-g-kalshi-kxmlsftts-26jul25porrsl-rsl |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-galaxy-record-the-first-goal-of-t-kalshi-kxmlsftts-26jul25sjlag-lag |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 52¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-jose-earthquakes-record-the-first-goal-of-kalshi-kxmlsftts-26jul25sjlag-sj |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | 16 |
| 2026-07-22 | 25 |
| 2026-07-23 | 33 |
| 2026-07-24 | 45 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-23 · Los Angeles FC +40pp 25→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-24 · Portland Timbers +20pp 25→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-24 · Real Salt Lake +18pp 26→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · Los Angeles FC +9pp 16→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-24 · Los Angeles FC +4pp 65→69¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Los Angeles FC scores the opening goal in their next match. At 37%, LAFC is the second-most-likely team to score first among the contracts available, trailing only Los Angeles Galaxy at 45%, while three other teams are priced lower. The market is essentially pricing LAFC as a moderate contender for first-goal honors. Factors influencing this probability include team form, offensive efficiency, defensive strength of the opposing team, and recent goal-scoring patterns. The match outcome will be determined when the game is played and either LAFC scores first, another team scores first, or the game ends goalless. Current trading volume shows minimal activity, suggesting limited recent information or betting interest on these specific first-goal contracts.

### Key factors

- LAFC's recent goal-scoring rate and shot conversion percentage compared to typical opening-match patterns
- Opponent's defensive record and early-game defensive performance in recent matches
- Starting lineup composition and availability of LAFC's key attacking players
- Historical data on which teams score first in MLS matches involving comparable-strength opponents
- Match timing and venue (home vs. away), as first-goal probability can vary based on these factors

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlsftts
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlsftts

## License

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