# Who will join MLS in the summer

> Casemiro leads at 80%, runner-up 32% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlsjoin
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.586Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-10

## Headline

- Leader: Casemiro at 80%
- Runner-up: Mohamed Salah at 32%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $361

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casemiro | 80¢ | −4pp | $340 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-casemiro-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-casemiro |
| Mohamed Salah | 32¢ | +2pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-mohamed-salah-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-msalah |
| Robert Lewandowski | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-robert-lewandowski-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-rlewandowski |
| Neymar | 22¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-neymar-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-neymar |
| Lucas Moura | 16¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-lucas-moura-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-lmoura |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 16¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-cristiano-ronaldo-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-cronaldo |
| Francesco Acerbi | 16¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-francesco-acerbi-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-facerbi |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 16¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-henrikh-mkhitaryan-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-hmkhitaryan |
| Sergio Ramos | 16¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-sergio-ramos-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-sramos |
| Manuel Neuer | 11¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-manuel-neuer-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-mneuer |
| Keylor Navas | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-keylor-navas-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-knavas |
| Luka Modric | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-luka-modric-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-lmodric |
| Angel Di Maria | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-angel-di-maria-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-adimaria |
| Karim Benzema | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-karim-benzema-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-kbenzema |
| Yann Sommer | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-join-mls-in-the-summer-yann-sommer-kalshi-kxmlsjoin-26sep03-ysommer |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Casemiro | Mohamed Salah | Robert Lewandowski |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 86 | 31 | 41 |
| 2026-04-24 | 57 | 27 | 36 |
| 2026-04-25 | 41 | — | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 46 | 31 | 41 |
| 2026-05-02 | 61 | — | 28 |
| 2026-05-09 | 80 | 33 | — |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Casemiro +17pp 64→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Casemiro +5pp 56→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Lucas Moura −5pp 21→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Casemiro −4pp 84→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Casemiro +3pp 61→64¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 64% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Casemiro will join Major League Soccer this summer, significantly ahead of alternative outcomes at 31%. This high confidence likely stems from recent transfer activity in the soccer market, reported interest from MLS clubs, and the player's career stage. The probability could shift based on contract negotiations with his current club, competing offers from European leagues, and official announcements from MLS teams or the player's representatives. The key resolution point will be whether a formal transfer agreement is announced before the summer transfer window closes, typically in early September. Market sentiment appears weighted toward an MLS move occurring, though the 36-point gap to other outcomes suggests meaningful uncertainty remains about timing and final destination.

### Key factors

- Casemiro's contract status with his current employer and explicit willingness to negotiate MLS terms
- Competing transfer interest from European clubs that could offer alternative options during the same window
- Official statements or leaked negotiations from specific MLS clubs indicating serious pursuit
- Market movement volume and direction: whether recent contract activity reflects informed trading or speculative positioning
- Timing alignment between player availability and MLS clubs' roster construction needs before the summer season begins

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlsjoin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlsjoin

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.