# Will New England score over 1.5 goals

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlsteamtotal
Updated: 2026-07-25T19:20:51.082Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-09

## Headline

- Probability: 51% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $75

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles G over 1.5 goals | 39¢ | ±0 | $42 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-g-score-over-15-goals-los-angeles-kalshi-kxmlsteamtotal-26jul25sjlag-lag2 |
| Los Angeles F over 2.5 goals | 54¢ | ±0 | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-f-score-over-25-goals-los-angeles-kalshi-kxmlsteamtotal-26jul25lafcskc-lafc3 |
| San Jose over 1.5 goals | 60¢ | +3pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-jose-score-over-15-goals-san-jose-over-15-kalshi-kxmlsteamtotal-26jul25sjlag-sj2 |
| Los Angeles F over 0.5 goals | 92¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-f-score-over-05-goals-los-angeles-kalshi-kxmlsteamtotal-26jul25lafcskc-lafc1 |
| Los Angeles F over 1.5 goals | 77¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-f-score-over-15-goals-los-angeles-kalshi-kxmlsteamtotal-26jul25lafcskc-lafc2 |
| Kansas City over 0.5 goals | 57¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-score-over-05-goals-kansas-city-o-kalshi-kxmlsteamtotal-26jul25lafcskc-skc1 |
| Kansas City over 1.5 goals | 21¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-score-over-15-goals-kansas-city-o-kalshi-kxmlsteamtotal-26jul25lafcskc-skc2 |
| Kansas City over 2.5 goals | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-score-over-25-goals-kansas-city-o-kalshi-kxmlsteamtotal-26jul25lafcskc-skc3 |
| Portland over 0.5 goals | 81¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-portland-score-over-05-goals-portland-over-05-kalshi-kxmlsteamtotal-26jul25porrsl-por1 |
| Portland over 1.5 goals | 51¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-portland-score-over-15-goals-portland-over-15-kalshi-kxmlsteamtotal-26jul25porrsl-por2 |
| Portland over 2.5 goals | 23¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-portland-score-over-25-goals-portland-over-25-kalshi-kxmlsteamtotal-26jul25porrsl-por3 |
| Salt Lake over 0.5 goals | 78¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-salt-lake-score-over-05-goals-salt-lake-over-kalshi-kxmlsteamtotal-26jul25porrsl-rsl1 |
| Salt Lake over 1.5 goals | 47¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-salt-lake-score-over-15-goals-salt-lake-over-kalshi-kxmlsteamtotal-26jul25porrsl-rsl2 |
| Salt Lake over 2.5 goals | 22¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-salt-lake-score-over-25-goals-salt-lake-over-kalshi-kxmlsteamtotal-26jul25porrsl-rsl3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | 26 |
| 2026-07-20 | 43 |
| 2026-07-24 | 50 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-20 · Los Angeles F over 1.5 goals +49pp 27→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Portland over 0.5 goals +34pp 42→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · San Jose over 1.5 goals +33pp 26→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Los Angeles F over 0.5 goals +33pp 50→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Los Angeles F over 2.5 goals +26pp 29→55¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 46% probability that New England scores more than 1.5 goals in an upcoming match, meaning exactly 2 or more goals. The probability sits near even odds, suggesting the market sees moderate scoring potential but not strong confidence. Key factors influencing this level include New England's recent offensive output, defensive matchups against their opponent, and historical goal-scoring patterns in similar fixtures. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the match itself—the actual game result will definitively answer whether New England reaches the 2+ goal threshold. Related markets show Seattle favored at 70% for over 0.5 goals but only 49% for over 1.5 goals, suggesting general expectation of moderate scoring levels across both teams.

### Key factors

- New England's goal-scoring rate in recent matches compared to seasonal average
- Head-to-head offensive efficiency between New England and their scheduled opponent
- Defensive strength of the opposing team, particularly shots conceded per match
- Whether key New England forwards are available and in current form
- Match conditions and venue (home/away advantage, weather if applicable)

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlsteamtotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlsteamtotal

## License

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