# Will Saint Louis win the MLS Western Conference

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 7 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlswest
Updated: 2026-06-26T08:20:49.517Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-08

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $625

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose | 19¢ | +1pp | $585 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-jose-win-the-mls-western-conference-san-j-kalshi-kxmlswest-26-sj |
| Los Angeles F | 22¢ | +11pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-f-win-the-mls-western-conference-kalshi-kxmlswest-26-lafc |
| Austin | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-austin-win-the-mls-western-conference-austin-kalshi-kxmlswest-26-atx |
| Minnesota | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-win-the-mls-western-conference-minn-kalshi-kxmlswest-26-min |
| San Diego | 13¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-win-the-mls-western-conference-san-kalshi-kxmlswest-26-sd |
| Seattle | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-win-the-mls-western-conference-seattl-kalshi-kxmlswest-26-sea |
| Vancouver | 24¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vancouver-win-the-mls-western-conference-vanc-kalshi-kxmlswest-26-van |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 11 |
| 2026-06-12 | 15 |
| 2026-06-19 | 8 |
| 2026-06-26 | 19 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Los Angeles F +11pp 9→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Los Angeles F −9pp 18→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · San Diego +8pp 3→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Vancouver +8pp 22→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Vancouver −7pp 31→24¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 12% probability reflects market expectations that Saint Louis will win the MLS Western Conference in 2026. This relatively low odds indicates the market views the team as a significant longshot compared to traditional contenders. The current assessment likely reflects St. Louis's recent competitive positioning, roster composition, and historical performance in the conference. Major factors pushing this probability up would include significant roster acquisitions during the transfer window or exceptional early-season performance. The probability could decline if competing Western Conference teams make stronger signings or if St. Louis experiences early injuries to key players. The season's outcome will largely be determined by actual match results as they accumulate, with the Conference championship typically resolved in late 2026.

### Key factors

- St. Louis's current squad depth and recent win-loss record compared to other Western Conference franchises
- Transfer market activity during the 2026 offseason, particularly high-profile player acquisitions or departures
- Early season performance (approximately April-June 2026) as an indicator of competitive trajectory relative to rival teams
- Injury status of key players in midfield and defensive positions that drive team performance
- Head-to-head record and goal differential against top Western Conference competitors through the season

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlswest
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlswest

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.