# Gervonta Davis to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 19 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mmacompete
Updated: 2026-09-22T02:20:49.479Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-08

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $34

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 5¢ | −1pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/michael-chandler-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuab-kalshi-kxmmacompete-27jan-mcha |
| Jake Paul | 53¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jake-paul-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuable-prom-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-jpau |
| Amanda Serrano | 55¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/amanda-serrano-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuable-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-aser |
| Floyd Mayweather Jr. | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/floyd-mayweather-jr-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-val-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-fmay |
| Conor McGregor | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/conor-mcgregor-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuable-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-cmcg |
| Michael Chandler | 6¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/michael-chandler-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuab-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-mcha |
| Kamaru Usman | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/kamaru-usman-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuable-p-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-kusm |
| Charles Oliveira | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/charles-oliveira-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuab-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-coli |
| Ryan Garcia | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/ryan-garcia-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuable-pr-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-rgar |
| Anthony Joshua | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/anthony-joshua-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuable-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-ajos |
| Canelo Alvarez | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/canelo-alvarez-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuable-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-calv |
| Gervonta Davis | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gervonta-davis-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuable-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-gdav |
| Ilia Topuria | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/ilia-topuria-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuable-p-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-itop |
| Oleksandr Usyk | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/oleksandr-usyk-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuable-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-ousy |
| Sean O'Malley | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/sean-omalley-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuable-p-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-soma |
| Tyson Fury | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/tyson-fury-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuable-pro-kalshi-kxmmacompete-28jan-tfur |
| Jake Paul | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jake-paul-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuable-prom-kalshi-kxmmacompete-27jan-jpau |
| Amanda Serrano | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/amanda-serrano-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-valuable-kalshi-kxmmacompete-27jan-aser |
| Floyd Mayweather Jr. | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/floyd-mayweather-jr-to-compete-in-the-mvp-most-val-kalshi-kxmmacompete-27jan-fmay |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | 20 |
| 2026-09-08 | 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | 29 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 19% chance that boxer Gervonta Davis will compete in MVP MMA, a promotion founded by Jake Paul, before the end of 2026. The relatively low probability reflects Davis's established boxing career and lack of public statements about MMA competition, alongside the short timeframe remaining. Resolution hinges on whether Davis announces or fights in an MVP event before December 31, 2026. Key considerations include Davis's current boxing schedule commitments, the financial incentives MVP might offer to attract established combat athletes, and whether Davis has expressed any interest in cross-training or competing in MMA. The Jake Paul MVP boxing contract markets trade significantly higher (5¢ for 2027, 75¢ for 2028), suggesting markets view MMA participation as distinctly less likely than boxing involvement. Davis would need to make a public commitment and actually compete within approximately five months for this to resolve affirmatively.

### Key factors

- Davis has no publicly known MMA experience or training; any competition would require substantial preparation or announcement
- MVP MMA events have occurred with limited mainstream fighter participation; the promotion's ability to attract established boxers to MMA remains unproven
- Related markets show Jake Paul at 5¢ for MVP boxing and various fighters trading between 6¢-17¢, indicating markets price MMA crossover as substantially less likely than boxing
- The December 31, 2026 deadline provides approximately five months for announcement, training, and actual competition to occur
- Davis maintains active boxing commitments that would complicate simultaneous MMA preparation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mmacompete
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mmacompete

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.