# MN-02 Democratic Primary Winner

> Matt Little leads at 68%, runner-up 16% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mn02-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.777Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-11

## Headline

- Leader: Matt Little at 68%
- Runner-up: Matt Klein at 16%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Little | 68¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mn-02-democratic-primary-winner-matt-little-polymarket-0x822409787697144b96f53af76e6419655f5704d5a1382c0604aa01fb331e2ca5 |
| Matt Klein | 16¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mn-02-democratic-primary-winner-matt-klein-polymarket-0x33c3b9a093ed165a022c0cece1dfbc75aacfc7d02b32ec2b60f33b83a83b584e |
| Kaela Berg | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mn-02-democratic-primary-winner-kaela-berg-polymarket-0x268f4042d495b0a3ea61e794c664f1d3796f3a0fc5dab7bf1ad5bfdbf7850d7c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Matt Little | Matt Klein | Kaela Berg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 45 | 36 | 24 |
| 2026-04-25 | 63 | 14 | 8 |
| 2026-05-02 | 68 | 10 | 13 |
| 2026-05-09 | 69 | 20 | 13 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Matt Klein +16pp 10→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Matt Klein −11pp 26→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Matt Klein +3pp 15→18¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 62% probability indicates that traders believe the leading candidate has a clear but not overwhelming advantage in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary. This level reflects confidence in the frontrunner while acknowledging meaningful uncertainty from other viable contenders. Factors supporting this probability include the leader's fundraising, name recognition, or organizational capacity. Downward pressure could come from late-breaking opposition, voter sentiment shifts, or consolidation around an alternative candidate. The primary election results will provide definitive resolution, likely occurring in August 2026 as part of Minnesota's standard primary cycle. Traders are pricing in real but surmountable risks to the current frontrunner's path to victory, as evidenced by the runner-up holding 21% probability and the remaining candidate at 17%.

### Key factors

- The leading candidate's campaign infrastructure, fundraising totals, and endorsements relative to competitors as of late April 2026
- Early voting patterns and internal polling data released by campaigns in the weeks preceding the primary
- Voter turnout composition in MN-02, particularly which demographic segments participate at higher rates
- Last-minute candidate entries, withdrawals, or endorsement shifts that could consolidate support among other candidates
- August 2026 primary election results, which will definitively determine the Democratic nominee for this district

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mn02-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mn02-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.