# MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner

> Ilhan Omar leads at 86%, runner-up 14% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mn05-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.979Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-11

## Headline

- Leader: Ilhan Omar at 86%
- Runner-up: Latonya Reeves at 14%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $41

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilhan Omar | 86¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mn-05-democratic-primary-winner-ilhan-omar-polymarket-0x805989714fd56adb1fda05206d993bc60aa133f2331580ab69df906f65360d31 |
| Latonya Reeves | 14¢ | ±0 | $41 | polymarket | /markets/mn-05-democratic-primary-winner-latonya-reeves-polymarket-0x8192dd35ac1fd08d63739b40f14448f5d321bcc69da9dd22b7743b6bb130b47c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ilhan Omar | Latonya Reeves |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | — | 15 |
| 2026-04-22 | 86 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 78 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 81 | 21 |
| 2026-05-08 | 87 | 14 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 14 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Ilhan Omar +8pp 81→89¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Latonya Reeves −7pp 21→14¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates an 80% probability that a specific candidate wins the Minnesota 5th District Democratic primary. The high confidence reflects either strong polling or fundraising data favoring the leading candidate, with the remaining 20% probability distributed to alternatives. This outcome would shift depending on candidate endorsements, debate performance, or turnout patterns in the district. The primary election date—typically held in early August for Minnesota congressional races—represents the key resolution event. Until then, campaign developments and any public polling releases would be the primary drivers of probability movement, as would any major gaffes or endorsement swings that alter the perceived front-runner status.

### Key factors

- Leading candidate's current polling margin versus nearest competitor in MN-05
- Endorsement patterns from state party leadership, incumbent representatives, or union organizations
- Relative fundraising totals and cash-on-hand position as of latest FEC reports
- Historical turnout and demographic composition of Minnesota 5th District primary voters
- Timing and results of any public polling releases between now and election day

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mn05-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mn05-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.