# MN-08 House Election Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mn08-house-election-winner
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Republican Party at 73%
- Runner-up: Democratic Party at 27%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican Party | 73¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mn-08-house-election-winner-republican-party-polymarket-0xdd5b568a1b1066258cd7fa7a7083de550a092157959dc850e49e6384847955ae |
| Democratic Party | 27¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mn-08-house-election-winner-democratic-party-polymarket-0xf83d984df52349f3b30fc061e888582d411c16bcf8c9710e3d2d3e1c5b075afe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Republican Party | Democratic Party |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 76 | — |
| 2026-05-23 | 74 | 24 |
| 2026-06-04 | 74 | 27 |
| 2026-06-07 | 73 | 27 |
| 2026-06-08 | 74 | — |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The current 67% probability indicates that the leading candidate in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District is favored to win this House seat. This level reflects market expectations based on available polling, historical voting patterns, and demographic composition of the district. The probability would move higher if recent polling shows the leading candidate strengthening their position, or lower if new surveys indicate movement toward the runner-up. The general election scheduled for November 2026 is the key event that will resolve this market. Between now and then, primary results, candidate performance in debates, fundraising reports, and updated district polling will likely shift the probability as new information becomes available. The 36-point gap between the leader and runner-up suggests moderate confidence in the outcome, though substantial uncertainty remains given the typical volatility of House races and the months remaining until the election.

### Key factors

- Latest internal and public polling showing the leader's margin in MN-08 and trend direction since last major survey
- Primary election results or endorsements that could signal momentum shifts before the general election in November 2026
- Demographic and historical voting data for the district compared to statewide and national election performance trends
- Campaign funding and resource levels for both the leading and runner-up candidates as of the most recent FEC reporting
- National political environment factors that could affect House races, including approval ratings and generic ballot polling

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mn08-house-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mn08-house-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.