# Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for MN-2

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mn2d
Updated: 2026-08-08T19:20:51.624Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Little | 72¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-little-be-the-democratic-dfl-nominee-for-kalshi-kxmn2d-26-mlit |
| Matt Klein | 17¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-klein-be-the-democratic-dfl-nominee-for-kalshi-kxmn2d-26-mkle |
| Kaela Berg | 4¢ | −2pp | $255 | kalshi | /markets/will-kaela-berg-be-the-democratic-dfl-nominee-for-kalshi-kxmn2d-26-kber |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | 87 |
| 2026-07-26 | 45 |
| 2026-08-02 | 31 |
| 2026-08-07 | 32 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-05 · Matt Little −13pp 79→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Kaela Berg −8pp 12→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Matt Little +6pp 66→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Matt Klein +4pp 5→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Matt Klein +4pp 9→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 27% chance that Kaela Berg becomes the Democratic nominee for Minnesota's 2nd congressional district. The probability reflects uncertainty about Berg's standing in what could be a competitive DFL primary, influenced by factors such as candidate field strength, fundraising performance, and endorsement patterns within Minnesota's Democratic Party. The nomination outcome will depend on Berg's ability to consolidate support among DFL delegates and primary voters against potential challengers. Key upcoming catalysts include formal candidate announcements, fundraising reports, and any party endorsements that could signal momentum shifts before the nominating process concludes.

### Key factors

- Berg's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other DFL primary candidates
- Explicit endorsements from Minnesota DFL party leadership, elected officials, and unions representing labor-heavy districts
- Early polling or straw polls among DFL primary voters and party delegates if conducted
- The total number of credible candidates entering the DFL primary and their respective name recognition
- Berg's performance at candidate forums and debates, if held before the nominating process

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mn2d
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mn2d
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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