# Will Jared Adams be the Democratic nominee for MN-07

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 7 contracts — refreshed 50 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mnprimary
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.453Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $896

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Xiong | 26¢ | +10pp | $450 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-xiong-be-the-republican-nominee-for-mn-0-kalshi-kxmnprimary-04r26-pxio |
| Paul Wikstrom | 69¢ | −11pp | $405 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-wikstrom-be-the-republican-nominee-for-m-kalshi-kxmnprimary-04r26-pwik |
| Tyler Bass | 15¢ | −1pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-bass-be-the-republican-nominee-for-mn-0-kalshi-kxmnprimary-03r26-tbas |
| Erik Osberg | 93¢ | +1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-erik-osberg-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-kalshi-kxmnprimary-07d26-eosb |
| Quentin Wittrock | 80¢ | ±0 | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-quentin-wittrock-be-the-republican-nominee-fo-kalshi-kxmnprimary-03r26-qwit |
| Aswar Rahman | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aswar-rahman-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-kalshi-kxmnprimary-04d26-arah |
| Julie Le | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-julie-le-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mn-05-kalshi-kxmnprimary-05d26-jle |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | 48 |
| 2026-08-02 | 57 |
| 2026-08-09 | 47 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-09 · Paul Wikstrom −11pp 82→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Paul Xiong +10pp 13→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Tyler Bass −5pp 21→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Paul Wikstrom +3pp 79→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Quentin Wittrock +3pp 74→77¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates there is approximately a 44% chance that Jared Adams will win the Democratic primary election for Minnesota's 7th congressional district. Primary outcomes depend heavily on factors like candidate name recognition, endorsement patterns from party leadership, and voter turnout across the district. The nomination will be determined by the Minnesota Democratic primary election, which typically occurs in early summer. Performance in earlier candidate forums, fundraising totals, and field organization strength relative to other candidates in the race would likely be the key metrics that shift this probability up or down as the primary approaches.

### Key factors

- Jared Adams's fundraising totals compared to other Democratic candidates running in MN-07
- Endorsements from Minnesota state Democratic Party officials and federal legislators representing the state
- Vote share in any early primary elections, straw polls, or candidate preference surveys among registered Democrats
- Voter turnout levels in the MN-07 district relative to historical Democratic primary participation rates
- Name recognition and polling differentials between Adams and his primary opponents in the district

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mnprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mnprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.