# Will the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor be between 1 and 10 at the primary's final certification

> Closed. Last odds frozen 8 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mnrecountmargin
Updated: 2026-08-31T13:21:51.455Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-09-18

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $548

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 97¢ | +3pp | $548 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-change-in-lisa-demuths-certified-vote-mar-kalshi-kxmnrecountmargin-26sep18-e0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | 83 |
| 2026-08-30 | 95 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market measures whether Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell will shift by 1-10 votes between now and final certification of the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary. The 35% probability reflects that small margin shifts are more likely than no change (36%), but less likely than larger swings. The current assessment depends on whether remaining vote counts, recounts, or certification adjustments produce modest vote movements. The primary takes place in August 2026, with certification typically occurring within days to weeks after Election Day. Market pricing suggests traders expect either no material change in the margin or shifts larger than 10 votes, rather than a small single-digit or low double-digit swing. Resolution hinges entirely on the official certified vote totals announced by Minnesota election officials.

### Key factors

- The primary election date of August 2026 determines when vote certification begins and the window for final margin calculation
- Current polling and early voting patterns between Demuth and Lindell establish the baseline margin before potential recounts or adjustments
- Minnesota's certification procedures and timelines—including recount triggers and administrative corrections—will determine which vote changes count toward final certification
- The initial reported margin between the candidates sets the denominator; small swings (1-10 votes) become less probable if the reported gap is much larger
- Any recount requests, provisional ballot challenges, or discovered counting errors must fall within the 1-10 vote range to resolve this contract affirmatively

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mnrecountmargin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mnrecountmargin
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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