# MO-06 Republican Primary Winner

> Chris Stigall leads at 69%, runner-up 16% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mo06-republican-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.336Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-04

## Headline

- Leader: Chris Stigall at 69%
- Runner-up: Nathan Willett at 16%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $75

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Stigall | 69¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mo-06-republican-primary-winner-chris-stigall-polymarket-0xbeaf469ddc59c3aea0d6c7690eb70b69e3077a9d059f79859130636993ca4f98 |
| Nathan Willett | 16¢ | ±0 | $75 | polymarket | /markets/mo-06-republican-primary-winner-nathan-willett-polymarket-0x8d8d1461ff08b5f5bb02c7ab88bc02d0e793b6abc993811b5e1d22b9fcdfb46b |
| Cody Oshel | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mo-06-republican-primary-winner-cody-oshel-polymarket-0x52cebfd04081f15d7eed10d9be27657ba4392d5eba5fb4856f9eff06b8e3143c |
| Nathanael Schultz | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mo-06-republican-primary-winner-nathanael-schultz-polymarket-0x4168c55800f52740c0ca9c326569455ecd66075071e2825f4f4938bed2fafff4 |
| Gena Ross | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mo-06-republican-primary-winner-gena-ross-polymarket-0x816a3b7e3578a9722936a19cdde7bad1c86dd4600bea5d4da1c4a7bc7b35f1f4 |
| James Ingram | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mo-06-republican-primary-winner-james-ingram-polymarket-0x24df8884fc389832c40b97248fdd5b7ff77d8044ba7a4919814d8e9d0ee88e67 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Nathan Willett | Cody Oshel | Nathanael Schultz |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 14 | — | — |
| 2026-05-17 | 13 | 4 | 5 |
| 2026-05-21 | 13 | 4 | 6 |
| 2026-05-22 | 15 | — | — |
| 2026-05-28 | 18 | 6 | 6 |
| 2026-05-29 | 18 | — | 6 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-25 · Nathan Willett −4pp 16→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Nathan Willett +4pp 13→17¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability indicates that Chris Stigall is considered the frontrunner to win the Republican primary for Missouri's 6th Congressional District, with markets assigning him roughly a 2-in-3 chance. The current odds likely reflect Stigall's name recognition, fundraising position, or endorsements relative to other candidates in the field. The probability could shift based on debate performance, campaign spending data, polling releases, or changes in candidate viability—particularly if a second-tier candidate consolidates support or if new information emerges about frontrunner strength. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this outcome, with the winner determined by actual voting results. Markets pricing multiple candidates between 4-14% suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether Stigall maintains his lead through the primary process.

### Key factors

- Stigall maintains 69% implied probability versus nearest competitor at 14%, indicating but not guaranteeing frontrunner status
- Nathan Willett holds second position at 12%, suggesting a two-candidate competition scenario is priced into markets
- Polymarket contracts show minimal 24-hour trading volume except Willett ($116), indicating low liquidity and wider bid-ask spreads for most outcomes
- Six candidates priced between 4-69% reflects fragmented field where consolidation events could rapidly reprrice probabilities
- Missouri's 6th District primary election date will serve as resolution event, with results determining actual winner versus market forecast accuracy

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mo06-republican-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mo06-republican-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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