# Will Beyoncé appear in mobile game advertisement this year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 10 contracts — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mobilegamead
Updated: 2026-06-26T01:20:49.493Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaquille O'Neal | 27¢ | −1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-shaquille-oneal-appear-in-mobile-game-adverti-kalshi-kxmobilegamead-27jan01-sha |
| Beyoncé | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-beyonc-appear-in-mobile-game-advertisement-th-kalshi-kxmobilegamead-27jan01-bey |
| Dua Lipa | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dua-lipa-appear-in-mobile-game-advertisement-kalshi-kxmobilegamead-27jan01-dua |
| Jay-Z | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jay-z-appear-in-mobile-game-advertisement-thi-kalshi-kxmobilegamead-27jan01-jay |
| Paul George | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-george-appear-in-mobile-game-advertiseme-kalshi-kxmobilegamead-27jan01-pau |
| The Rock | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rock-appear-in-mobile-game-advertisement-kalshi-kxmobilegamead-27jan01-roc |
| Scarlett Johansson | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-scarlett-johansson-appear-in-mobile-game-adve-kalshi-kxmobilegamead-27jan01-sca |
| Selena Gomez | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-selena-gomez-appear-in-mobile-game-advertisem-kalshi-kxmobilegamead-27jan01-sel |
| Taylor Swift | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-appear-in-mobile-game-advertisem-kalshi-kxmobilegamead-27jan01-tay |
| Timothée Chalamet | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-timothe-chalamet-appear-in-mobile-game-advert-kalshi-kxmobilegamead-27jan01-tim |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | 11 |
| 2026-06-11 | 15 |
| 2026-06-19 | 18 |
| 2026-06-24 | 4 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This prediction estimates a 9% chance that Beyoncé will appear in a mobile game advertisement before the end of 2026. The low probability reflects that celebrity mobile game endorsements, while not rare, involve specific alignment between a performer's brand, available opportunities, and business terms. Key factors include Beyoncé's historical selectivity in commercial partnerships, the typical lead time for major advertising campaigns, and competitive dynamics within the mobile gaming sector. With approximately six months remaining in 2026, any major announcement would likely have already been announced or be in advanced production stages. The market is pricing in low likelihood partly based on limited historical precedent and the absence of any announced partnerships as of mid-June 2026.

### Key factors

- Beyoncé's track record shows selective commercial endorsements; fewer appearances in mobile game ads than mainstream celebrities like Shaq
- Mobile game advertising budgets and campaign timelines typically require 3-6 months advance planning and announcement
- Gaming industry spending on A-list celebrity partnerships has grown but remains concentrated among specific franchises
- No announced partnership or leak as of June 2026 with six months remaining in the year suggests lower probability than if deals were in pipeline
- Comparable artists (Dua Lipa at 7%, Jay-Z at 3%) trade at similarly low probabilities, indicating baseline skepticism across the cohort

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mobilegamead
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mobilegamead

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.