# Modern SC vs. Tala'ea El Gaish SC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 14 contracts — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/modern-sc-vs-talaea-el-gaish-sc
Updated: 2026-05-05T10:20:31.188Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 50% / Polymarket 24% — 26pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talarico vs. Paxton | 58¢ | −1pp | $614 | kalshi | /markets/will-dem-nominee-be-james-talarico-and-gop-nominee-kalshi-kxtxsencombo-26nov-talpax |
| Talarico vs. Cornyn | 41¢ | +1pp | $380 | kalshi | /markets/will-dem-nominee-be-james-talarico-and-gop-nominee-kalshi-kxtxsencombo-26nov-talcor |
| Ghazl El Mahalla SC (-2.5) | 5¢ | — | $68 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x058269a1aff18752c3ada2ccc0f4c7bda0e35bfca83f4c3305f3ae9363961b16 |
| O/U 4.5 | 7¢ | — | $31 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xf2f172d3c51f51880b72b4870d410b871c7520e383ea2a035bcedb034dd1fbe5 |
| Tala'ea El Gaish SC | 37¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-talaea-e-polymarket-0xf309d5ef7bdc3c2cbc081c50a884e957c3d94aaa13b7d0f7d3f235b980b66b6b |
| Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-1.5) | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xcfd8ae93ecfdafad54e0f1ea37dc78d8f07fd74db45a6370d6396a37b8c856c9 |
| Ghazl El Mahalla SC (-1.5) | 10¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x38d77b59a8939f700428b00e675928555c3628f66fe7b86df5717a13cac987c4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 27¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x288ff0e2c8f28d2ce3086cdcf50104581d515384996453e7affbe355cdb23634 |
| O/U 3.5 | 15¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x7b51f5b1ae95d3ae4b6193060967617edf485cb2b357f723eab19886c6839166 |
| Both Teams to Score | 40¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x5e259bb37b4c32909df4d0c35554cdd4df86416c9592834bc94d270ad9099efe |
| Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) | 10¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xc7227427d717e9b2e1623fe742087682ff01b0cb992c0d39e7226d057067aff4 |
| O/U 1.5 | 56¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xbba7de6218bf80a3f35ab8e20bc25a1ffc79547250260eb453886765e28bc1f0 |
| Draw (Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC) | 40¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-draw-tal-polymarket-0x0fc637c69071f59c1908180636611b8f1e0c772f345f5d862efa6cc8d17a0787 |
| Ghazl El Mahalla SC | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-ghazl-el-polymarket-0x052b58bbdb8ea96833997b2909baff6b82329eae90e9ea459b0259bf4ca7a59e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 34 |
| 2026-04-21 | 50 |
| 2026-04-28 | 56 |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/modern-sc-vs-talaea-el-gaish-sc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=modern-sc-vs-talaea-el-gaish-sc

## License

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