# Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.190Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 11¢ | −3pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by-may-31-polymarket-0xabef6d91adc036f3c2e0fa52f72dd0654ee8fba07974e06ec762a27c37b58e9f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 37 |
| 2026-04-25 | 17 |
| 2026-05-02 | 9 |
| 2026-05-09 | 10 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · May 31 −4pp 13→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · May 31 +4pp 7→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · May 31 −3pp 13→10¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract tracks the probability that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Iran's supreme leader, makes a public appearance by May 31, 2026—approximately four weeks from now. The 7% probability reflects low near-term expectations for such an appearance, despite recent speculation about his potential elevation to leadership roles. Market participants appear to be pricing in his historically limited public visibility and the typical opacity surrounding Iran's succession dynamics. A significant movement would require either credible reporting of a public appearance or major political developments that shift succession expectations. The May 31 deadline creates a concrete resolution point, though the vagueness of what constitutes a "public appearance" introduces some interpretation risk.

### Key factors

- Mojtaba Khamenei has historically maintained an extremely low public profile compared to other potential Iranian successors, with most information about him coming through indirect sources rather than direct media appearances
- The probability assumes no major political crisis or succession emergency in Iran between now and May 31 that would force unprecedented public actions or statements
- Related markets show much higher probabilities for broader outcomes (66% for Iran leader change by end of 2026), suggesting traders view near-term public appearances as unlikely even amid succession uncertainty
- The contract definition and what qualifies as a "public appearance" may be ambiguous—whether formal statements, speeches, or any verifiable sighting would count affects market pricing
- Upcoming Iranian elections, parliamentary activity, or military commemorations in May could provide scheduled opportunities for public visibility, though none are guaranteed to involve Khamenei

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance

## License

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