# Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election

> Alexandr Stoianoglo leads at 22%, runner-up 12% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/moldovapres
Updated: 2026-09-21T15:20:50.041Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2029-10-31

## Headline

- Leader: Alexandr Stoianoglo at 22%
- Runner-up: Dorin Recean at 12%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Stoianoglo | 22¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-moldovan-presidential-electi-kalshi-kxmoldovapres-28-asto |
| Dorin Recean | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-moldovan-presidential-electi-kalshi-kxmoldovapres-28-drec |
| Igor Dodon | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-moldovan-presidential-electi-kalshi-kxmoldovapres-28-idod |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Alexandr Stoianoglo | Igor Dodon |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 22 | 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | 21 | 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | 22 | 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | 22 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | — | 12 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Alexandr Stoianoglo −20pp 22→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Alexandr Stoianoglo +20pp 2→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Current prediction markets price Alexandr Stoianoglo at 22% to win Moldova's next presidential election, reflecting his standing as the frontrunner among six tracked candidates. This probability reflects uncertainty about the timing and competitive landscape of the election, which has not yet been formally scheduled. Stoianoglo's position as the leading candidate stems from his previous polling performance and political visibility, though the 22% price indicates substantial remaining uncertainty—no single candidate commands majority confidence. The market also reflects that alternative candidates like Natalia Gavrilița (7%), Dorin Recean (12%), and Igor Dodon (11%) remain viable contenders. Key drivers of probability movement would include official election date announcements, shifts in public polling data, coalition formations or party mergers, and changes in candidate eligibility or campaign momentum. The formal scheduling of the election or any major electoral events would likely narrow the current wide spread of probabilities across candidates.

### Key factors

- No official presidential election date has been formally announced as of August 2026, creating timeline uncertainty that distributes probability across multiple candidates rather than concentrating it
- Stoianoglo's current 22% probability is the highest among six tracked candidates, but combined alternatives total 47%, indicating the market sees substantial uncertainty about the eventual winner
- Gavrilița's 7% price and $31 24-hour trading volume suggest some recent market activity around alternative candidates despite Stoianoglo's frontrunner status
- No single candidate price exceeds 25%, indicating fragmented voter preference or incomplete polling consensus in the market's assessment
- Historical Moldovan election volatility and coalition dynamics could cause rapid probability shifts if new political developments emerge before formal candidacy registration

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/moldovapres
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=moldovapres
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.