# Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montana-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-06-04T07:20:12.344Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Leader: Reilly Neill at 88%
- Runner-up: Alani Bankhead at 10%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reilly Neill | 88¢ | −35pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/montana-democratic-senate-primary-winner-reilly-ne-polymarket-0x776db9e01d9c8559071df4a0d42e9e03d9ee943dc61ce2e11378491da42dc42d |
| Alani Bankhead | 10¢ | +40pp | $482 | polymarket | /markets/montana-democratic-senate-primary-winner-alani-ban-polymarket-0x1d7f4a41fc4406acc8c8f7aa9dd8d1a3113b217b265cc15289437b4ade8b47cc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Reilly Neill | Alani Bankhead |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 93 | — |
| 2026-05-10 | 93 | 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | 87 | 8 |
| 2026-06-01 | 88 | 6 |
| 2026-06-03 | 53 | 50 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Alani Bankhead +40pp 10→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · Reilly Neill −35pp 88→53¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · Reilly Neill −5pp 93→88¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · Alani Bankhead +4pp 6→10¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 92% probability indicates that one candidate is strongly favored to win Montana's Democratic Senate primary, with limited market uncertainty about the outcome. This reflects either substantial early polling leads, favorable structural conditions for the frontrunner, or high entry barriers for challengers. The probability level could shift if unexpected polling emerges, endorsements consolidate behind an alternative candidate, or fundraising dynamics change materially. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this contract; candidates' performances in debates, candidate forums, and any late-stage candidate withdrawals between now and election day represent the main catalysts that could move these odds. Current trading volume suggests limited active speculation, which typically accompanies races with clearer perceived outcomes.

### Key factors

- One candidate holds a decisive preference advantage in available polling or early voting metrics relative to other primary contenders
- The frontrunner has secured endorsements or fundraising advantages that create structural obstacles for challengers to gain traction
- Montana's Democratic primary electorate size, participation rates, and geographic distribution favor the leading candidate's electoral coalition
- No major scandal, gaffe, or external event has emerged recently that would destabilize the frontrunner's position
- Trading volume of $625 per 24 hours across contracts indicates relatively modest speculative interest compared to general-election races

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montana-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=montana-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.