# Montedio Yamagata vs. SC Sagamihara - More Markets: SC Sagamihara (-1.5)

> SC Sagamihara (-1.5) leads at 13%, runner-up 11% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montedio-yamagata-vs-sc-sagamihara-more-markets-sc
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.533Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Leader: SC Sagamihara (-1.5) at 13%
- Runner-up: SC Sagamihara (-2.5) at 11%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Sagamihara (-1.5) | 13¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-sc-sagamihara-more-markets-sc-polymarket-0xfbdd793611014b66fd6bf261dfd5d47df9dc35680a318439927fb4caa4be108a |
| SC Sagamihara (-2.5) | 11¢ | −16pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-sc-sagamihara-more-markets-sc-polymarket-0x851d74528be6f6287af67e272832ad0e07f79ee3f38ce9512ae59384fcf68f34 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | SC Sagamihara (-1.5) | SC Sagamihara (-2.5) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 33 | 31 |
| 2026-05-07 | 34 | 27 |
| 2026-05-08 | 27 | 27 |
| 2026-05-09 | 13 | 11 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · SC Sagamihara (-2.5) −16pp 27→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · SC Sagamihara (-1.5) −14pp 27→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · SC Sagamihara (-1.5) −7pp 34→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · SC Sagamihara (-2.5) −4pp 31→27¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 34% probability that SC Sagamihara will win their upcoming match against Montedio Yamagata by 1.5 or more goals. The closely-clustered contract prices (34¢ and 33¢) suggest uncertainty between SC Sagamihara winning by the specified margin versus other outcomes—either a narrower Sagamihara victory, a draw, or a Montedio win. The probability will be resolved when the match concludes. Key factors influencing this estimate include each team's recent form in the J2 League, head-to-head historical matchup data, current league standings and goal differential, and any lineup changes or injuries affecting either squad. The low recent trading volume ($0 over 24 hours) indicates limited market activity, which may reduce confidence in the price accuracy.

### Key factors

- SC Sagamihara's current win rate and average goals scored per match this season versus Montedio Yamagata's defensive record
- Montedio Yamagata's recent form and whether they are trending toward or away from goal-scoring streaks
- Historical head-to-head records between these two J2 League teams, if available, and typical margin of victory when SC Sagamihara wins
- Any confirmed absences, injuries, or roster changes for either team in the days leading up to the match
- Home/away venue designation and whether either team has a significant home-field advantage affecting goal-scoring patterns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montedio-yamagata-vs-sc-sagamihara-more-markets-sc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=montedio-yamagata-vs-sc-sagamihara-more-markets-sc
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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