# Montedio Yamagata vs. SC Sagamihara

> Montedio Yamagata leads at 41%, runner-up 34% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montedio-yamagata-vs-sc-sagamihara
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.805Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Leader: Montedio Yamagata at 41%
- Runner-up: SC Sagamihara at 34%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $55

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montedio Yamagata | 41¢ | −4pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-sc-sagamihara-montedio-yamaga-polymarket-0xc10a9568635966bc39d380ec8c0e38acfe55bc179ec42f626e49275151cbf6df |
| SC Sagamihara | 34¢ | ±0 | $45 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-sc-sagamihara-sc-sagamihara-polymarket-0x80daadfbf70f684d9b2fcdf8f7a12856ef26a01fd110dd5ea1acd6f92b482e58 |
| Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. SC Sagamihara) | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-sc-sagamihara-draw-montedio-y-polymarket-0x63344086c539480fa352750276fe5deb6532e654d586e9db68beccea8540e194 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Montedio Yamagata | SC Sagamihara | Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. SC Sagamihara) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 45 | 37 | 35 |
| 2026-05-07 | 35 | 37 | 35 |
| 2026-05-08 | 31 | 37 | 35 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Montedio Yamagata −10pp 45→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Montedio Yamagata −4pp 35→31¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Montedio Yamagata will defeat SC Sagamihara in an upcoming match. At 47%, traders see it as slightly favored but not heavily, with a 39% probability assigned to a draw outcome. The relative likelihood depends on recent team form, head-to-head records, home-field advantage, and player availability. Both clubs compete in Japan's professional football pyramid, and their relative positioning in the current season substantially influences win probability. The match result will resolve this contract when the final whistle sounds, eliminating all remaining uncertainty about the outcome.

### Key factors

- Montedio Yamagata's league position and recent win-loss record versus SC Sagamihara's current form and points total
- Home-field advantage: whether the match is played at Yamagata's or Sagamihara's stadium
- Head-to-head historical matchup data between these two clubs over recent seasons
- Key player injuries or suspensions affecting either squad's roster at match time
- The specific date and time of the scheduled match, which determines the resolution window

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montedio-yamagata-vs-sc-sagamihara
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=montedio-yamagata-vs-sc-sagamihara
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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