# Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-25T07:20:12.261Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 82%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 53%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $92

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 82¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x08b8541952246b85fde176a5aae6646c2d6f77379b28aa7a5d480978d1458070 |
| Both Teams to Score | 53¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-markets-bo-polymarket-0x23d121bdfc54dbe867d924f9cfde8fd1627ec4bdff97233071db64048ca14ebe |
| O/U 2.5 | 50¢ | +15pp | $72 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x4aed3fa7bd268ae882d7c8560aa0b5e4bd335b03c8ad64a1a029e543fa0add01 |
| O/U 3.5 | 28¢ | +30pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x8528251398f031a43910bc5f43ae51f04b94bfe4824350274558ff425001b7dc |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | +13pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x3b47ccb0ac0fba15df7aa291d084f78989f1a8edd04f3fc8d63e3a37fe12534e |
| Shōnan Bellmāre (-1.5) | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-markets-sh-polymarket-0xec8e41a6e9b0c2ce54da5a37bc10809666c521c1fbe15c659d3d811e0528059e |
| Montedio Yamagata (-1.5) | 11¢ | +37pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-markets-mo-polymarket-0x844f8cde1aa1c5e4a846054aef4fdba4ebc6434e6623838bfb04ed98456e2489 |
| Shōnan Bellmāre (-2.5) | 10¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-markets-sh-polymarket-0x7d900760a44e67dd304630e9ebd31035d16c3a1dca6a889c4ce9d6fab2e07d1b |
| Montedio Yamagata (-2.5) | 9¢ | +38pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-markets-mo-polymarket-0x2d0acab6b2f707a5e7cb14c9cf8a3f85482ae450b94c415ecfe3bc25fe84c100 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | 78 | 57 | 50 |
| 2026-05-24 | 85 | 64 | 65 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-24 · Montedio Yamagata (-2.5) +38pp 10→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · Montedio Yamagata (-1.5) +37pp 15→52¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · O/U 3.5 +30pp 27→57¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · O/U 2.5 +15pp 50→65¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · O/U 4.5 +13pp 13→26¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 60% probability that both Montedio Yamagata and Shōnan Bellmāre will score goals in their upcoming match. This outcome sits well above the runner-up scenario (21%), suggesting traders expect offensive activity from both sides rather than a low-scoring or one-sided result. The probability reflects recent form, tactical tendencies, and defensive vulnerabilities of both J2 League clubs. Volume across contracts is minimal ($0 in 24-hour trading), indicating limited market depth and relatively few active traders pricing this event. The match result will definitively resolve whether both teams score, providing clear data on offensive efficiency and defensive solidity for each club.

### Key factors

- Recent goal-scoring records of both teams in their last 5–10 matches, including average goals per match and clean-sheet frequency
- Historical head-to-head scoring patterns between Montedio Yamagata and Shōnan Bellmāre in prior meetings
- Current injury or suspension status of key forwards and defensive players for either club that would affect scoring probability
- J2 League standings and relative league position, which typically correlates with offensive and defensive capability
- Market liquidity and trading volume remaining near zero, suggesting the 60% price may not reflect sufficient consensus or active price discovery

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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