# Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre
Updated: 2026-05-25T07:20:12.261Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Leader: Shōnan Bellmāre at 44%
- Runner-up: Montedio Yamagata at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $46

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shōnan Bellmāre | 44¢ | −19pp | $46 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre-shnan-bellmre-polymarket-0x5fabb72cb0442a9ac6bb8c7c32ab4d2b1f43c3a57b6bdc834ee98a3f433557ac |
| Montedio Yamagata | 28¢ | +31pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre-montedio-yamaga-polymarket-0x9af5c65d7c810e40531b0561438c13cca1f02e0db41a7a33bc5121b8fe2aeb8a |
| Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre) | 27¢ | −13pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre-draw-montedio-y-polymarket-0xf215db9a1558e6c73e804951857e880c9a37904c7ab28b424f5b4d4a01aeb458 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Shōnan Bellmāre | Montedio Yamagata | Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | — | 36 | 31 |
| 2026-05-23 | 41 | 30 | 27 |
| 2026-05-24 | 22 | 61 | 14 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-24 · Montedio Yamagata +31pp 30→61¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · Shōnan Bellmāre −19pp 41→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre) −13pp 27→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Montedio Yamagata −6pp 36→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre) −4pp 31→27¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 42% probability indicates that Shōnan Bellmāre is currently favored to win an upcoming match against Montedio Yamagata, though neither team has overwhelming odds. The market pricing reflects Shōnan's slight edge, with Montedio at 34% and a draw at 28%. In Japanese football (J-League), match outcomes depend on recent form, head-to-head records, player availability, and home-field advantage. The current probability would shift upward for Shōnan if they enter the match on a winning streak or if key Montedio players are unavailable; it would move downward if Montedio shows improved recent performance or if injuries affect Shōnan's squad. The match date will be the primary catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, as the actual result will determine payout. Until then, the market is pricing in moderate confidence in Shōnan's chances rather than a strong consensus.

### Key factors

- Recent league standings and win-loss records for both teams in the 2026 season
- Head-to-head historical matchup data between Montedio Yamagata and Shōnan Bellmāre
- Confirmed player injuries, suspensions, or roster changes affecting either squad
- Home or away designation and venue (home-field advantage historically influences J-League outcomes)
- The specific match date and whether either team faces fixture congestion in surrounding weeks

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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