# Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 65%, runner-up 52% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:49.234Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 65%
- Runner-up: O/U 2.5 at 52%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xda0ea1b669fd6281e67c2f7debf289881de763bfb3598afef4fb3494f629f5e3 |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc26872899f3bb280f768daa4b24340eefcd3e924616c27e97fe754db78535101 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-bot-polymarket-0xd6d00ce85db87360ad28c70342a8f2b87d703ebe7a319dca09821a11ab48a2e5 |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x68f5fbb3a2afbfa74b1d32d31d8d64b137044de765a06e409ffdb537d23fba0a |
| Thespa Gunma (-2.5) | 35¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-the-polymarket-0xf0472b72ea8a9953d1d21b5fe997a73300e0f2f19e02ae3d86bc2222f77099af |
| Montedio Yamagata (-1.5) | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-mon-polymarket-0xc6b29b6ccedb7686c8fccf7d6a8d85ec1e79beae7acd56da8e816a761267917b |
| Thespa Gunma (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-the-polymarket-0xa980d10a592f891e94f3c9e054856ca18d8b4366d3ef3083af9f2cf89e0029b1 |
| Montedio Yamagata (-2.5) | 32¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-mon-polymarket-0xa5b295be7e5127fbd46480c52cab4823e0862b64aa3a6b6e40f1858913e0370e |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xf9c84381843b80450cbda142e07bc4b95e02a0a142b2a6e5c5bf3803d9f48a5a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | O/U 2.5 | Both Teams to Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | — | 51 | 49 |
| 2026-05-03 | 61 | 52 | 51 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Thespa Gunma (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Montedio Yamagata (-2.5) +3pp 33→36¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a lean toward Montedio Yamagata in a match against Thespa Gunma, with traders pricing the outcome at 51% based on available contracts on Polymarket. The probability sits notably above a pure coin flip, suggesting modest market confidence in Yamagata's chances relative to alternatives. The J-League context matters here: both teams operate in Japanese domestic competition, and current form, recent head-to-head records, and home-field advantage typically influence these spreads. The resolution will depend entirely on the match result when played. Key uncertainties stem from squad availability, recent injury reports, and how market participants weight offensive versus defensive strength in the league's typical playing patterns.

### Key factors

- Montedio Yamagata win probability is priced 17 percentage points above the runner-up outcome (51% vs. 34%), indicating moderate consensus rather than ambiguity
- Polymarket volume across five contracts totals low absolute liquidity ($265+ 24h range across listed pairs), potentially reducing confidence in price precision
- No stated match date in available data; resolution timeline directly impacts whether near-term form and injuries remain relevant to the probability
- Home-field advantage in J-League tends to shift win probabilities 5-10 percentage points in favored teams' direction, a factor baked into current pricing
- Head-to-head historical records between Yamagata and Gunma would explain persistence of 51% if the teams have played recently with consistent outcome patterns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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