# Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:50:47.727Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Montedio Yamagata at 52%
- Runner-up: Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma) at 25%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $366

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montedio Yamagata | 52¢ | −16pp | $134 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-montedio-yamagat-polymarket-0x16f4ac10b455aeed267b92b4a5a582c3801266d163f2efd32fe4cdb25f8432bb |
| Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma) | 25¢ | −4pp | $167 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-draw-montedio-ya-polymarket-0x278ee235cb895726835eeec20b13e099114a34ea505952c76b11540b3ce8b2ff |
| Thespa Gunma | 22¢ | −2pp | $64 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-thespa-gunma-polymarket-0x1003b54bfec9e8a605fa41c7bd7e8b086cc4e5c96db6d4250a16cdbf0b51e57f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Montedio Yamagata | Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma) | Thespa Gunma |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 44 | 37 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 47 | 40 | 40 |
| 2026-05-06 | 31 | 36 | 38 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Montedio Yamagata −16pp 47→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma) −4pp 40→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma) +3pp 37→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Montedio Yamagata +3pp 44→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Thespa Gunma +3pp 37→40¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Montedio Yamagata will win an upcoming match against Thespa Gunma, with Montedio currently favored at 46% compared to a 39% chance for Thespa and an equivalent 39% probability of a draw. The modest favorite status suggests relatively balanced competitive positioning between the teams. Key drivers of the current level include recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage if applicable. The probability will shift based on team news—injuries, lineup changes, or roster updates—and will move sharply on match day as kickoff approaches and live odds become available. Resolution occurs at the final whistle of the scheduled match, which will determine the actual outcome against these pre-match expectations.

### Key factors

- Current market prices show Montedio at 46¢, Thespa at 39¢, and Draw at 39¢, indicating near-parity with slight Montedio preference
- Zero trading volume across all contracts in the past 24 hours suggests low liquidity and potentially outdated pricing
- Montedio is priced as a modest favorite rather than a strong favorite, implying competitive balance or uncertainty about team conditions
- The draw probability equals the runner-up win probability at 39%, typical of three-way sports markets with genuine competitive uncertainty
- Contract pricing across win/loss/draw must sum to approximately 100%, with current structure totaling 124¢ due to typical market fee structure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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