# Montedio Yamagata vs. Tochigi SC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montedio-yamagata-vs-tochigi-sc
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:50:56.955Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-03

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $28

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama FC | 44¢ | +1pp | $28 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-yokohama-fc-polymarket-0x55b12d18b6d23acca350d701d3ef79f9dada8ea8b661dd33fc95301b333a3f34 |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc26872899f3bb280f768daa4b24340eefcd3e924616c27e97fe754db78535101 |
| Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma) | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-draw-montedio-ya-polymarket-0x278ee235cb895726835eeec20b13e099114a34ea505952c76b11540b3ce8b2ff |
| Thespa Gunma (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-the-polymarket-0xa980d10a592f891e94f3c9e054856ca18d8b4366d3ef3083af9f2cf89e0029b1 |
| Thespa Gunma (-2.5) | 35¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-the-polymarket-0xf0472b72ea8a9953d1d21b5fe997a73300e0f2f19e02ae3d86bc2222f77099af |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x68f5fbb3a2afbfa74b1d32d31d8d64b137044de765a06e409ffdb537d23fba0a |
| Montedio Yamagata (-1.5) | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-mon-polymarket-0xc6b29b6ccedb7686c8fccf7d6a8d85ec1e79beae7acd56da8e816a761267917b |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xf9c84381843b80450cbda142e07bc4b95e02a0a142b2a6e5c5bf3803d9f48a5a |
| Thespa Gunma | 36¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-thespa-gunma-polymarket-0x1003b54bfec9e8a605fa41c7bd7e8b086cc4e5c96db6d4250a16cdbf0b51e57f |
| Montedio Yamagata | 49¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-montedio-yamagat-polymarket-0x16f4ac10b455aeed267b92b4a5a582c3801266d163f2efd32fe4cdb25f8432bb |
| Montedio Yamagata (-2.5) | 32¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-mon-polymarket-0xa5b295be7e5127fbd46480c52cab4823e0862b64aa3a6b6e40f1858913e0370e |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-bot-polymarket-0xd6d00ce85db87360ad28c70342a8f2b87d703ebe7a319dca09821a11ab48a2e5 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xda0ea1b669fd6281e67c2f7debf289881de763bfb3598afef4fb3494f629f5e3 |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0xd165f0be07f5e0f8d9c9531860a4288aa0971cf6dcfa9f6f3666f8f7277681c8 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x1d1df793744711ab891ffe155624416370bdf3fd0d4a6966d1978320fd8b7c61 |
| Tochigi City FC (-1.5) | 31¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-tochig-polymarket-0x00d353e73d92c211a37d3b0eb03737f155a2b0413c3532525a81dc65562d5196 |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x22beacd714da8e36133ae7b4ce9a922882b6587e6747fb1648422ade6fe12bae |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-both-t-polymarket-0xd6838381c0c35db5a2b4887d2f6dd520ea2cd8829c4e505a637419cb3f4e5708 |
| Yokohama FC (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-yokoha-polymarket-0x2c1d8193e28b595f3903da1a31b9be397c53ac444485be771094d265d036eecf |
| Tochigi City FC (-2.5) | 27¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-tochig-polymarket-0xd08f51a60bef0a7c506ef2c93e03fde75b5311864a8c2b5b9f66777f3cb11e15 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 40 |
| 2026-05-03 | 43 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Both Teams to Score −8pp 59→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Tochigi City FC (-2.5) +5pp 32→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Thespa Gunma (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Yokohama FC (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma) +3pp 37→40¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montedio-yamagata-vs-tochigi-sc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=montedio-yamagata-vs-tochigi-sc
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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