# Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: CD Palestino (-1.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montevideo-city-torque-vs-cd-palestino-more-markets-cd
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Palestino (-1.5) | 7¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montevideo-city-torque-vs-cd-palestino-more-market-polymarket-0x3516b5b692799f11ea507798ed69b2a3ad09fca6d85fd504f5ee9b896d713b92 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | 20 |
| 2026-05-06 | 7 |
| 2026-05-07 | 0 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · CD Palestino (-1.5) −13pp 20→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · CD Palestino (-1.5) −7pp 7→0¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market prices CD Palestino's chances of winning by 2+ goals or more against Montevideo City Torque at 11%, meaning traders assign roughly an 89% probability to other outcomes (Torque win, draw, or narrower Palestino victory). The low probability reflects either Torque's perceived strength at home, Palestino's recent form, or historical head-to-head patterns favoring tighter scorelines. The main drivers would be team injury reports, recent goal-scoring efficiency, and defensive records in similar matchups. Resolution depends on the scheduled match result; if Palestino fails to secure a 2+ goal margin, the market resolves to the competing outcome. Current contract volume is minimal, suggesting limited trader conviction or liquidity in this specific spread.

### Key factors

- CD Palestino's recent goal differential and attack efficiency in away matches
- Montevideo City Torque's defensive record and home performance over the last 5–10 matches
- Team roster absences (injuries, suspensions) announced before kickoff
- Historical head-to-head results and margin patterns between these teams
- Scheduled match date and live odds movements closer to game time

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montevideo-city-torque-vs-cd-palestino-more-markets-cd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=montevideo-city-torque-vs-cd-palestino-more-markets-cd

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