# Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montevideo-city-torque-vs-cd-palestino
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:50:26.603Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Montevideo City Torque at 51%
- Runner-up: Draw (Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino) at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $16

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montevideo City Torque | 51¢ | +43pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/montevideo-city-torque-vs-cd-palestino-montevideo-polymarket-0x6bb53613a9251b182c09f4d08f49846d2d6bc6fe377ec0560a4ad95936f73a3e |
| Draw (Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino) | 28¢ | −28pp | $4 | polymarket | /markets/montevideo-city-torque-vs-cd-palestino-draw-montev-polymarket-0x71ac6436acd81f55048111ee06342acc89a840be6c5f111fd09848a3138312d5 |
| CD Palestino | 22¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montevideo-city-torque-vs-cd-palestino-cd-palestin-polymarket-0x3299d6bee2481093d7ef9a78adeadd03771f46740c1e9780b2881d52ab08ce11 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Montevideo City Torque | Draw (Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino) | CD Palestino |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | — | — | 26 |
| 2026-05-06 | 57 | 28 | 15 |
| 2026-05-07 | 100 | 0 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Montevideo City Torque +43pp 57→100¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Draw (Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino) −28pp 28→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · CD Palestino −11pp 26→15¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents a 48% probability that Montevideo City Torque will win their upcoming match against CD Palestino. The prediction reflects moderate confidence favoring Montevideo City, though the runner-up outcome sits at 27%, indicating meaningful uncertainty. The probability is primarily driven by each team's recent form, head-to-head record, and current league position. Resolving this outcome depends on the scheduled match result between these two clubs. Market depth appears limited, with low trading volume ($0 across recent periods) suggesting few active traders are monitoring this specific fixture, which could mean the probability is less refined than heavily-traded matches. Key factors include each team's recent performance trajectory, home-field advantage if applicable, injury status of key players, and any tactical adjustments either squad has implemented. The relatively modest 48% probability—neither overwhelming favorite nor true underdog—suggests the match is competitive on paper, though one team may hold a slight edge based on current market assessment.

### Key factors

- Montevideo City is favored at 48% versus the runner-up at 27%, indicating the market perceives a meaningful but not decisive advantage
- Trading volume is near zero across recent periods, suggesting low liquidity and potentially less-refined probability estimates compared to heavily-traded sports markets
- The match outcome will be determined by the scheduled fixture result; no interim data releases or ongoing events contribute to probability changes before resolution
- Historical head-to-head records, current league standings, and recent form of both clubs are the primary drivers of the 48% probability
- Injuries, suspensions, or late tactical changes to either team's roster could shift the probability if market participants become aware before kickoff

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/montevideo-city-torque-vs-cd-palestino
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=montevideo-city-torque-vs-cd-palestino

## License

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