# Will Brad Patty be the Republican nominee for MO-05

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 14 contracts — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/moprimary
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:49.384Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $238

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartzell Gray 3rd | 59¢ | — | $125 | kalshi | /markets/will-hartzell-gray-3rd-be-the-democratic-nominee-f-kalshi-kxmoprimary-04d26-h3rd |
| Nathanael Schultz | 6¢ | ±0 | $93 | kalshi | /markets/will-nathanael-schultz-be-the-republican-nominee-f-kalshi-kxmoprimary-06r26-nsch |
| Nathan Hall Willett | 17¢ | +3pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-nathan-hall-willett-be-the-republican-nominee-kalshi-kxmoprimary-06r26-nwil |
| Andrew Jones | 58¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-andrew-jones-be-the-republican-nominee-for-mo-kalshi-kxmoprimary-01r26-ajon |
| Paul Berry III | 37¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-berry-iii-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxmoprimary-01r26-piii |
| Fred Wellman | 80¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fred-wellman-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mo-kalshi-kxmoprimary-02d26-fwel |
| Joan VonDras | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joan-vondras-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mo-kalshi-kxmoprimary-02d26-jvon |
| Timothy D Bilash | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-timothy-d-bilash-be-the-democratic-nominee-fo-kalshi-kxmoprimary-02d26-tbil |
| Ann Wagner | 94¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ann-wagner-be-the-republican-nominee-for-mo-0-kalshi-kxmoprimary-02r26-awag |
| Brandon Wilkinson | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brandon-wilkinson-be-the-republican-nominee-f-kalshi-kxmoprimary-02r26-bwil |
| Bethany E Mann | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bethany-e-mann-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxmoprimary-03d26-bman |
| Paul T Wilson | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-t-wilson-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-m-kalshi-kxmoprimary-03d26-pwil |
| Bob Onder | 93¢ | +46pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bob-onder-be-the-republican-nominee-for-mo-03-kalshi-kxmoprimary-03r26-bond |
| Ashleigh Rogers | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ashleigh-rogers-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxmoprimary-04d26-arog |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 7 |
| 2026-06-11 | 14 |
| 2026-06-18 | 44 |
| 2026-06-25 | 57 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Bob Onder +46pp 47→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Nathan Hall Willett +3pp 14→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Brad Patty's 31% probability reflects the current betting assessment of his chances to secure the Republican nomination for Missouri's 5th congressional district. This moderate probability suggests meaningful competition in the race. The nomination outcome will be shaped by factors including candidate fundraising totals, endorsements from party leadership and local influencers, turnout patterns in primary voting, and the number of viable competitors splitting the Republican field. The Republican primary election date will ultimately resolve this market. Until then, significant shifts in polling, campaign financing disclosures, or candidate dropout announcements could substantially move the probability in either direction. Comparative nominating contests in adjacent Missouri districts show varying competitive dynamics, suggesting MO-05's specific electoral landscape will determine the outcome.

### Key factors

- Fundraising and cash-on-hand reported in official FEC filings through primary season
- Number and strength of competing Republican candidates remaining in the MO-05 race
- Primary election date and voter turnout levels among registered Republicans
- Endorsements from state party officials, incumbent representatives, and major conservative organizations
- Polling data from internal campaigns and public surveys conducted among likely primary voters

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/moprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=moprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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