# Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 2 in 2026

> At least 2 leads at 40%, runner-up 22% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 36 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/moratoriumcount
Updated: 2026-07-24T01:20:50.303Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: At least 2 at 40%
- Runner-up: At least 3 at 22%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 2 | 40¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-us-states-that-formally-adopt-a-kalshi-kxmoratoriumcount-26dec31-al2 |
| At least 3 | 22¢ | −12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-us-states-that-formally-adopt-a-kalshi-kxmoratoriumcount-26dec31-al3 |
| At least 4 | 13¢ | −2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-us-states-that-formally-adopt-a-kalshi-kxmoratoriumcount-26dec31-al4 |
| At least 5 | 9¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-us-states-that-formally-adopt-a-kalshi-kxmoratoriumcount-26dec31-al5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 2 | At least 3 | At least 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | 45 | 30 | 15 |
| 2026-07-22 | — | 18 | 13 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-22 · At least 3 −12pp 30→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that at least two U.S. states will formally adopt binding data-center development moratoriums by year-end 2026. The relatively modest 40% probability suggests significant skepticism about rapid legislative action, despite growing concerns about water usage, energy demand, and land consumption from artificial intelligence infrastructure. States would need to pass binding legislation—not mere studies or non-binding resolutions—within the remaining five months of 2026. The current market pricing indicates that while some states are discussing such measures, formal adoption faces hurdles including tech industry lobbying, power and water utility interests, and the complexity of drafting enforceable moratorium language. Any state passage of such legislation before January 2027 would be considered unusual given typical legislative timelines. The remainder of 2026 will likely determine whether momentum builds for data-center restrictions or whether economic development incentives prevail.

### Key factors

- At least two states must pass binding legislation (not advisory measures or studies) formally restricting new data-center development by December 31, 2026
- Current legislative activity in states discussing data-center restrictions and their proximity to formal votes will be observable through legislative tracking
- Water availability concerns, particularly in western states, and energy grid capacity issues in targeted regions are measurable drivers of regulatory pressure
- Tech industry and utility company lobbying intensity and political opposition to moratoriums can be tracked through disclosed advocacy spending and hearing records
- The definition of 'binding' must exclude temporary freezes, permitting delays, or non-binding moratoriums—only formal legal restrictions count toward resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/moratoriumcount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=moratoriumcount

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.