# Morocco vs. Haiti

> Morocco leads at 65%, runner-up 28% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/morocco-vs-haiti
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:44.520Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-24

## Headline

- Leader: Morocco at 65%
- Runner-up: Draw (Morocco vs. Haiti) at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | 65¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/morocco-vs-haiti-morocco-polymarket-0x649bd3dc845f647aa8c9a739ad8de245b853224961afd01127de0071c13f84b3 |
| Draw (Morocco vs. Haiti) | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/morocco-vs-haiti-draw-morocco-vs-haiti-polymarket-0x6fcd127dbe2c45255d6b201b1b250c69dbf940de0fe80b4e40e23822c963443d |
| Haiti | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/morocco-vs-haiti-haiti-polymarket-0x060f4b969fc1f6b09682c1e7d9ae218273fe3f197977d1db22ccea01f42d895b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Morocco | Draw (Morocco vs. Haiti) | Haiti |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 58 | 34 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 57 | 33 | 30 |
| 2026-05-08 | 65 | 27 | 26 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 28 | 26 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Morocco +12pp 57→69¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Morocco vs. Haiti) −4pp 33→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Morocco −3pp 70→67¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Haiti −3pp 30→27¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Morocco is currently priced at 70% to defeat Haiti in this match outcome, indicating strong market confidence in a Moroccan victory. This high probability reflects Morocco's historical ranking advantage and expected squad depth compared to Haiti. The price could shift based on team news—injuries to key Morocco players would lower the probability, while Haiti roster surprises or tactical insights could raise Haiti's chances. The match itself and its result will resolve this contract, making actual team lineups, recent form updates, and pre-match tactical reports the primary uncertainty reducers before kickoff. Notably, related Brazil-Morocco contracts show lower volumes, suggesting less market certainty in parallel matchups.

### Key factors

- Morocco's FIFA ranking and historical performance metrics versus Haiti's competitive level in recent matches
- Betting volume on this specific contract ($6 24h vol) is substantially lower than related Brazil-Morocco contracts ($58-$45 24h vol), indicating less market participation and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
- Runner-up outcome (likely Haiti) is priced at 27%, creating a 43-point gap that assumes Morocco's superiority is well-established in market consensus
- Pre-match roster availability and injury reports for Morocco's starting XI could materially shift probability if key players are unavailable
- Recent head-to-head results or qualifying performance data between these teams would be necessary to validate whether the 70% price reflects actual historical win rates

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/morocco-vs-haiti
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=morocco-vs-haiti

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.