# Will mortgage rates drop below 5%?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 7 contracts — refreshed 35 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mortgage-rates-below-5
Updated: 2026-06-29T04:20:49.356Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $123

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7¢ | −2pp | $87 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-2026-freddie-mac-primary-mortgage-market-kalshi-kxfm30ymtg-26dec31-t5.75 |
| Maintains rate | 91¢ | ±0 | $36 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-0bps-at-their-ju-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26jul-h0 |
| Cut 25bps | 24¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-cut-rates-by-25bps-at-their-de-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26dec-c25 |
| Maintains rate | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-0bps-at-their-de-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26dec-h0 |
| Cut 25bps | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-cut-rates-by-25bps-at-their-oc-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct-c25 |
| Maintains rate | 79¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-0bps-at-their-oc-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct-h0 |
| Hike 25bps | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-25bps-at-their-o-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct-h25 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 5 |
| 2026-06-15 | 40 |
| 2026-06-22 | 32 |
| 2026-06-29 | 81 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-27 · Maintains rate −13pp 93→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Cut 25bps −11pp 16→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Maintains rate +6pp 53→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Maintains rate +6pp 65→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Maintains rate +5pp 88→93¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

There are currently no active prediction markets tracking specific mortgage rate outcomes, and broader economic data suggests rates remain elevated from historic lows. The Federal Funds Effective Rate is currently 3.63%, a factor that significantly influences the cost of mortgage lending in the broader economy.

### Key factors

- Federal Funds Effective Rate 3.63%
- Inflation (CPI) at 4.17% YoY
- Absence of mortgage-specific prediction markets

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mortgage-rates-below-5
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mortgage-rates-below-5

## License

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